[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 042143
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Nov 4 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Eta is centered near 13.9N 85.7W at 04/2100 UTC
or 90 nm E of Tegucigalpa Honduras moving W at 6 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate to strong
convection covers portions of the western Caribbean mainly north
of 11N and west of 77W. Continued weakening will occur while Eta
moves over land during the next day or two, and Eta should become
a tropical depression during the next few hours. Re-
intensification is possible once the center of Eta reached the
Caribbean Sea. A west-northwestward motion at a faster forward
speed is expected this evening through Thursday morning. A turn
toward the north, and then northeast is forecast Thursday night
and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected
across Honduras later this afternoon through Thursday morning. The
system is forecast to emerge over the Gulf of Honduras or the
northwestern Caribbean Sea Thursday night and Friday. Rainfall
will lead to catastrophic, life- threatening flash flooding and
river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain
of Central America. Flash flooding and river flooding are possible
across Nicaragua, Honduras, Guatemala, Belize, Panama, Costa
Rica, El Salvador, southeastern Mexico, Jamaica, and the Cayman
Islands into western Cuba.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is near 39W from 01N-17N, moving W at around
10 kt. Isolated showers are within 120 nm of the wave axis from
10N-16N.

A tropical wave axis is near 55W from near the Suriname/French
Guiana border northward to 18N, moving W at 5-10 kt. An upper-
level trough axis extends from 25N36W to 09N55W, enhancing
scattered moderate convection S of 10N between 50W-55W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends off the west coast of Africa near
13N17W to 09N21W. The ITCZ axis extends from 09N21W to 04N37W,
then continues west of a tropical wave from 05N41W to near the
French Guiana/Brazil border at 05N51W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted from 04N-11N between 15W-26W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Storm Eta.

A surface ridge extends from a 1032 mb high pressure area well NE
of the area to the S of Nova Scotia near 42N66W to the SW across
the SE United States across the Texas coastal plain to NE Mexico.
A weak surface trough is in the SW Gulf of Mexico, extending from
24N97W to 19N92W. The pressure gradient between Tropical Storm
Eta and the ridging is currently causing gusts near gale force NE
winds across the Florida Straits. Fresh to strong NE winds are
elsewhere over the SE Gulf of Mexico, south and east of a line
from Tampa Bay to 24N90W to 19N92W. Gentle to moderate winds
prevail north and west of that same line. Little to no significant
shower activity is seen across the basin.

The fresh to strong winds will gradually diminish beginning on
Thu evening. Winds will remain moderate to fresh over the eastern
Gulf waters through the weekend. By that time, Tropical Storm Eta
may be approaching Florida from the south. Tropical storm
conditions may be possible in the Florida Straits Sat night and
Sun, then potentially over the SE Gulf into Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Storm Eta.

Convection in the western Caribbean west of 73W is due to
Tropical Storm Eta and its interaction with an old lingering
frontal zone over Cuba. Little to no significant shower activity
is noted east of 72W. An earlier ASCAT scatterometer pass showed
fresh trades across the eastern and central Caribbean, east of
77W. Mostly strong wind speeds prevail west of 77W. Near gale E
winds are seen north of eastern Honduras from 16N-18N between
81.5W-86W associated with the circulation of Tropical Storm Eta.
Another area of near gale NE winds is south of western of Cuba and
near the Yucatan Channel from 20N-23N between 82W-86W.

Outside of Eta, scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue
to cover portions of the W Caribbean through the end of the
week, while strong to near gale NE winds will pulse over the NW
Caribbean through early Thu. In the central and E Caribbean, the
trades will diminish by late Thu and remain weaker than usual for
the next several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Storm Eta.

A stationary front extends from near 32N51W to 25N65W to the
N-central coast of Cuba near 22N80W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 270 nm of either side of the front. Fresh to
strong force NE-E winds are occurring N of the front, including
from NE of the Bahamas through the Straits of Florida. Moderate
NE-E winds are noted S of the front.

Farther east, an upper-level trough axis extends from an upper-
level cyclone near 27N30W to 25N36W to 09N55W. This trough is
enhancing convection as described above. An earlier ASCAT
scatterometer pass shows strong NE winds north of 27N between
15W-35W. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere, except gentle
to moderate N-NE winds S of 20N and E of 30W.

For the forecast west of 65W, the stationary front will remain
over the region this evening, gradually dissipating tonight.
The fresh to strong NE-E winds behind the front will continue
through Thu night, then become mainly fresh E winds Fri, and then
increase to fresh to strong Sat and Sun as Tropical Storm Eta
potentially approaches Florida from the south. Rough seas will
continue over the majority of the area through Thu, then begin to
slowly subside through late Fri. Seas build again over the waters
north and northeast of the Bahamas this weekend into early next
week.

$$
Lewitsky
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