[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021203
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Nov 2 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Recently upgraded Hurricane Eta is centered near 14.8N 80.9W at
02/0900 UTC or 120 nm E of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the
Nicaragua/Honduras border or 140 nm east-northeast of Puerto
Cabezas, Nicaragua moving W or 265 degrees at 9 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure has lowered to 974 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed has increased to 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. GOES-16
Satellite imagery shows that Eta now has a clearly visible CDO
(central dense overcast) that consists of numerous strong
convection within 90 nm of center in the NW quadrant, within 60 nm
of the center in the NE and SW quadrants and within 30 nm of the
center in the SE quadrant. Many banding features are coiled around
the CDO. One of these bands consists of scattered moderate to
strong convection within 30 nm either side of a line from 11N80W
to 13N78W to 15N77W, also from 13N to 17N between 76W- 79W and
from 16N to 18N between 79W-85W. Eta is expected to maintain its
current motion through this morning. A slower motion toward the
west-southwest is forecast by this afternoon and continuing into
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to
approach the northeastern coast of Nicaragua this afternoon, and
make landfall within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua by
early Tuesday. The center of Eta is forecast to move farther
inland over northern Nicaragua through early Wed. Strengthening,
possibly rapid, is expected through early Tuesday, and Eta could
be a major hurricane when landfall occurs by early Tue. Weakening
will begin after the system moves inland. Please read the latest
HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED by the National Hurricane Center at
website- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the
latest Eta NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Atlantic Gale Warning: Strong high pressure building
southeastward over Florida and the western Atlantic will produce
strong northeast to east winds with frequent gusts to gale force
west of 78W through Wed. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details and your
local NWS office at wwww.weather.gov for details on the coastal
waters forecasts.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Strong high pressure building in
behind a cold front that extends from just south of Fort Myers,
Florida to 23N87W and to the eastern Bay of Campeche will induce
strong to near gale force northerly winds across most of the Gulf
region through tonight. Northerly winds are expected to reach
minimal gale force off Veracruz, Mexico through early Mon
evening. Seas are forecast to build to 10-11 ft. Strong to near
gale force winds are expected to continue over the southeastern
Gulf Tue through Thu due to the pressure gradient between
Hurricane Eta in the western Caribbean and the aforementioned
strong high pressure. A Gale Warning is in effect for the Straits
of Florida for frequent gusts to 35 kt through Tue. Seas will be
quite high in the Straits of Florida through Wed night as these
winds blow against the current flow that is in the Straits. Please
read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A low-amplitude tropical wave has its axis along 44W/45W from 01N
to 14N. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is within 180 nm either side of the
wave from 06N to 09N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis passes through the coastal plains of
Guinea Bissau near 12N16W and continues to 09N20W, where overnight
scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to
08N30W and to 05N42W. It resumes west of the wave at 05N46W to
03N50W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave
section, scattered moderate convection is seen from 04N- 0N
between 18W-34W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for portions of the Gulf of Mexico.
Please, see the Special Feature section above for details.

Strong autumn high pressure is building across the area in the
wake of a cold front that extends from just south of Fort Myers,
Florida to 23N87W and to the eastern Bay of Campeche. The front
will exit the Gulf this morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Hurricane Eta.

Aside from convection associated to Eta, plenty of deep
atmospheric remains in place over the basin. This is leading
to numerous showers and thunderstorms over just about the
entire sea. Some of this activity, may at times, contain strong
gusty winds and frequent lightning.

In the eastern Caribbean, fresh to locally strong trades are
occurring with seas in the range of 6-8 ft.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A strong cold front has moved into the northwest part of the
area. It extends from near 32N75W to Fort Pierce, Florida. A pre-
frontal trough extends from near 31N72W to near 27N79W. A solid
60 nm wide line of numerous showers and thunderstorms is racing
out ahead of this trough from near 31N68W to 28N73W. It contains
frequent lightning. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are
noted north within 90 nm southeast of the trough between 75W-79W.
Over the far eastern part of the area, the tail-end of a
stationary front extends from 32N36W to 31N43W. Strong central
Atlantic high pressure center well north of the area is building
across this front. The associated broad ridging covers the area
north of 24N and east of 64W.

The strong cold front will sweep across the rest of the forecast
area through Tue, then stall from near 27N65W to the central
Bahamas Tue night before dissipating Wed night. Strong to near
gale force north to northwest winds and building seas are expected
behind the front and will affect both the Bahamas and the Straits
of Florida through Thu as strong high pressure builds across the
region in the wake of the front. Northeast winds with frequent
gusts to gale force are expected west of 78W today and tonight.
Expect for rather poor to hazardous marine conditions to continue
through late this week.

$$
Aguirre
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