[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021741
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Nov 2 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1710 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Eta is centered near 14.8N 81.5W AT 02/1500 UTC, or
about 100 nm E of Cabo Gracias a Dios on Nicaragua/Honduras
border and 120 nm ENE of Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua, moving W at
8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 95 kt with gusts to 115 kt. Numerous
strong convection is within 100 nm of the center in all
quadrants with scattered moderate convection noted from 11N-19B
between 76W-85W. Peak seas are currently 28 ft with 12 ft seas
extending 50 nm in the S semicircle, 120 nm in the NE quadrant
and 90 nm in the NW quadrant. Etais expected to slow down by
this afternoon and will continue into Tuesday.  On the forecast
track, the center of Eta is expected to approach the northeastern
coast of Nicaragua later today, and make landfall within the
Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua on Tuesday. The center of Eta
is forecast to move farther inland over northern Nicaragua through
Wednesday night. Continued rapid strengthening is expected
through early Tuesday, and Eta is expected to become a major
hurricane very soon. Catastrophic wind damage is expected where
Etas eyewall moves onshore. Weakening will begin after the system
moves inland. For more information on the marine hazards
associated with Eta, please refer to the High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml.

Through Friday, heavy rainfall from Eta will likely lead to
catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding
across portions of Central America, notably NE Nicragua and
eastern Honduras, along with landslides in areas of higher
terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across
Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the
Cayman Islands. In addition, a potentially catastrophic and
life-threatening storm surge, along with battering waves, is
expected along portions of the NE coast of Nicaragua near and to
the north of where the center makes landfall. For more
information on the heavy rainfall associated with Eta and other
hazards, please refer to the NHC Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Atlantic Gale Warning: Strong high pressure building southeastward
over Florida and the western Atlantic will produce strong
northeast to east winds with frequent gusts to gale force west of
78W through 04/0000 UTC. Seas will build to 13 ft off the coast of
Florida. Strong to near gale force winds are expected to continue
over the southeastern Gulf Tue through Thu due to the pressure
gradient between Hurricane Eta in the western Caribbean and the
aforementioned strong high pressure. Strong to near gale force
winds will also develop over the Straits of Florida with frequent
gusts by tonight through 04/0000 UTC. Seas will build through 16
ft through Wed evening. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details and your
local NWS office at wwww.weather.gov for details on the coastal
waters forecasts.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Strong high pressure building in
behind a cold front that extends across the far SE Bay of
Campeche will induce strong to near gale force northerly winds
across most of the Gulf region through tonight. Northerly winds
are expected to reach minimal gale force off Veracruz, Mexico
through early Mon evening. Seas are forecast to build to 10-12
ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 30W from 11N
southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is within 50 nm of the wave.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 47W from 11N
southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is noted along the wave from 06N-08N between 46W-48W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis passes through the coastal plains of
Guinea near 10N14W to 08N18W. The ITCZ continues from 08N18W to
06N30W, then continues west of a tropical wave near 05N31W to
05N46W. The ITCZ continues west of another tropical wave near
05N48W to the coast of French Guiana near 02N51W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ from 02N-11N between
19W-52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

See the Special Features section for information on the gale
warning in the southern Gulf of Mexico.

At 1500 UTC, the cold front extends across the southern Gulf
from the Florida Keys near 25N81W to the northern Yucatan near
21N88W. Showers are noted within 50 nm of the front. Otherwise,
strong high pressure is building across most of the basin. Fresh
to strong NE winds are noted across the central and eastern Gulf
with moderate to fresh NE winds in the NW Gulf. Seas are averaging
6-9 ft with upwards of 12 ft in the southern Bay of Campeche and
10 ft north of the Yucatan.

The strong cold front will reach the Florida Keys and the
northern Yucatan peninsula this morning. Fresh to near gale
force northerly winds are expected across the region tonight
through Tue night. Northerly winds are expected to reach gale
force speeds off Veracruz, Mexico today through early this
evening. Strong to near gale force winds are expected to
continue over the southeastern Gulf waters Wed and Thu due to
the combination between strong high pressure building south over
the Gulf and Hurricane Eta in the western Caribbean. Frequent
gusts to gale force are expected in the Straits of Florida today
and tonight.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Hurricane Eta.

Scattered moderate convection is moving across Hispaniola and
the central Caribbean from 13N-19N between 66W-74W. Scattered
showers are noted in the Gulf of Honduras and off the coast of
the Yucatan. Gentle to moderate trades are in the eastern and
central Caribbean with fresh to strong NW winds in the NW
Caribbean off the coast of the Yucatan. Seas are averaging 6-9
ft outside of Hurricane Eta.

Hurricane Eta will move to near 14.6N 82.0W this afternoon
with maximum sustained winds 80 kt gusts 100 kt, to near 14.2N
83.0W late tonight with maximum sustained winds 95 kt gusts 115
kt and inland to near 14.0N 83.7W Tue afternoon with maximum
sustained winds 85 kt gusts 105 kt. Eta will weaken to a tropical
storm near 13.9N 84.5W late Tue night and continue further inland
and weaken to a tropical depression near 14.0N 85.7W Wed afternoon.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue
well in advance of Eta.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A strong cold front is sweeping across the western Atlantic off
the coast of Florida and the Bahamas. The front enters the waters
near 31N70W to the South Florida coast near 26N80W. A pre-frontal
trough is noted ahead of the front from 30N68W to the Straits of
Florida near 23N81W. Showers and thunderstorms are along this
trough. Strong to near gale-force NNW winds are noted across the
western Atlantic behind the front off the Florida coast. Moderate
to fresh southerly winds are ahead of the cold front near 31N.
Seas are 7-9 ft. Farther east, a stationary front extends across
the central Atlantic near 31N between 41W-49W. Showers are along
this front. Otherwise, high pressure extends across the basin with
moderate to fresh winds in the central Atlantic. Seas are averaging
7-12 ft.

A strong cold front will sweep across the rest of the forecast
area through Tue, then stall from near 27N65W to the central
Bahamas Tue night before dissipating Wed night. Strong to near
gale force north to northwest winds and building seas are
expected behind the front and will affect both the Bahamas and
the Straits of Florida through Thu as strong high pressure builds
across the region in the wake of the front. Northeast winds with
frequent gusts to gale force are expected west of 78W today and
tonight.

$$
AReinhart
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