[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020528
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Nov 2 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Eta is centered near 14.9N 80.0W at 02/0300 UTC
or 186 nm E of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the Nicaragua/Honduras
border moving W or 270 degrees at 11 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 989 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt
with gusts to 75 kt. Numerous strong convection is within 9 nm of
the center. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from
07N-20N between 71W-88W. On the forecast track, the center of Eta
is expected to approach the northeastern coast of Nicaragua
Monday afternoon, and make landfall within the Hurricane Warning
area in Nicaragua Monday night or early Tuesday. The center of
Eta is forecast to move farther inland over northern Nicaragua
through early Wednesday. Rapid strengthening is forecast to
continue during the next 36 hours, and Eta is expected to become
a hurricane by early Monday morning. Additional strengthening is
likely thereafter, and Eta is expected to be a major hurricane
when landfall occurs Monday night or early Tuesday. Catastrophic,
life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with
landslides in areas of higher terrain ar expected over Central
America. In addition, flash flooding and river flooding are
possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern
Haiti, and the Cayman Islands. A dangerous storm surge will raise
water levels by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels
in areas of onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua within the
hurricane warning area, and 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels
along the coast of Honduras within the tropical storm warning
area. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED by the
National Hurricane Center at website-
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Eta
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front over S Florida
and the SE Gulf of Mexico will quickly reach the Florida
Keys and the northern Yucatan peninsula by Mon morning. Strong to
near gale force northerly winds are expected across most of the
Gulf region tonight through Mon night. Northerly winds are
expected to reach minimal gale force off Veracruz, Mexico from
late tonight through early Mon evening. Seas are forecast to
build to 10-11 ft. Strong to near gale force winds are expected
to continue over the southeastern Gulf Tue through Thu due to
the pressure gradient between Tropical Cyclone Eta and strong
high pressure centered offshore New England. Please read the
latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center
at website www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A low-amplitude tropical wave is along 43W from 13N southward
moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 05N-11N between 35W-48W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
Bissau near 12N16W to 09N19W. The ITCZ continues from 09N19W to
07N30W to 04N42W. The ITCZ resumes W of a tropical wave near
04N45W and extends to the coast of Brazil near 02N51W. Besides
the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered
moderate convection is from 04N-10N between 18W-35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for portions of the Gulf of Mexico.
Please, see Special Feature section for details. High pressure is
already building over N Mexico and the NW Gulf of Mexico. As of
02/0300 UTC, a cold front extends from central Florida near
28N81W to the south central Gulf of Mexico near 22N90W to the Bay
of Campeche near 21N92W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of
the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Attention remains focused on Tropical Storm Eta forecast to
strengthen into a hurricane tonight. With this tropical
cyclone now in the Caribbean Sea, the all time record of twenty-
eight named storms established in 2005 has been tied.

In the eastern Caribbean, fresh to locally strong trade winds
dominates the area with seas of 6-8 ft. Abundant cloudiness with
embedded showers are also noted.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 02/0300 UTC, a cold front is over the W Atlantic from
31N77W to central Florida near 28N81W. A prefrontal trough
extends from 31N74W to 27N80W. Scattered showers are N of 27N
and W of 74W. Further E, the tail-end of a cold front reaches the
central Atlantic near 31N43W. A 1025 mb high is over the E
Atlantic near 33N18W.

A strong cold front will sweep across the W Atlantic then stall
from near 27N65W to the central Bahamas Tue night before
dissipating Wed night. Strong to near gale force north to
northwest winds and building seas are expected behind the front
and will affect both the Bahamas and the Straits of Florida
through Thu as strong high pressure builds across the region in
the wake of the front. Northeast winds with frequent gusts to
gale force are expected south of 27N west of 78W Mon and Mon
night.

$$
Formosa
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