[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 012345
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Nov 1 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Eta is centered near 14.9N 78.9W at 01/2100 UTC
or 250 nm E of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the Nicaragua/Honduras
border moving W or 270 degrees at 13 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt
with gusts to 65 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is
noted within 150 nm W semicircle and 120 nm NE quadrant of center.
Scattered moderate to strong convection are noted in bands to
the E of Eta from 12N-17N between 70W-76W. On the forecast
track, the center of Eta is expected to approach the northeastern
coast of Nicaragua on Monday, and make landfall within the
Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua Monday night or early
Tuesday. Eta is forecast to move inland over northern Nicaragua
through early Wednesday. Rapid strengthening is forecast during
the next 24 to 36 hours, and Eta is expected to become a hurricane
tonight, with additional strengthening likely until the hurricane
makes landfall Monday night or early Tuesday. A life-threatening
storm surge, along with damaging waves, is expected along portions
of the northeastern coast of Nicaragua near and to the north of
where the center makes landfall. Water levels could reach as high
as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in some parts of the
hurricane warning area. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion. Please read the latest HIGH
SEAS FORECAST ISSUED by the National Hurricane Center at website-
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Eta
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.

Widespread heavy rainfall event from tropical cyclone Eta.
Through Friday afternoon, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to
significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding
across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas
of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible
across Jamaica, Southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands. Eta is
expected to produce rainfall amounts of 15-25 inches across
northern and central Nicaragua into much of Honduras, with
isolated amounts of 35 inches. Rainfall accumulations of 10-20
inches are forecast for eastern Guatemala and southern Belize,
and 10-15 inches for portions of Panama and Costa Rica. For
more information, especially on specific rainfall amounts for
countries to be impacted by Eta, please refer to the NHC Public
Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov in addition to bulletins and
forecasts that are provided by your national meteorological
service.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move into the
northern Gulf waters this evening, and quickly reach the Florida
Keys and the northern Yucatan peninsula by Mon morning. Strong to
near gale force northerly winds are expected across most of the
Gulf region tonight through Mon night. Northerly winds are
expected to reach minimal gale force off Veracruz, Mexico from
late tonight through early Mon evening. Seas are forecast to
build to 10-11 ft. Strong to near gale force winds are expected
to continue over the southeastern Gulf Tue through Thu due to
the pressure gradient between Tropical Cyclone Eta and strong
high pressure centered offshore New England. Please read the
latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center
at website www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A low-amplitude tropical wave is along 43W from 11N southward
moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 06N-08N between 40W-43W.

The tropical wave previously located in the western Caribbean is
not longer identifiable in the Tropical Wave Diagnostics and the
streamlines analysis. In addition, scatterometer data show Nly
winds all the way from western Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras in
association with the outer cyclonic circulation of Eta. This
tropical wave should be removed from the next surface map at 00Z.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
Bissau near 12N16W to 10N19W. The ITCZ continues from 10N19W to
06N30W to 05N40W to the coast of Brazil near 03N51W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is seen from 03N-09N between
30W-34W, and from 07N-09N between 34W-40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Mexico. Please, see
Special Feature section for details. High pressure is already
building across the Gulf waters and the eastern slopes of Sierra
Madre Mountains in Mexico, ahead of a cold front forecast to move
quickly across the region. Convective clouds streets are observed
parallel to the winds due to advection of cold air over relatively
warm waters.

A surface trough extends over the eastern Gulf from N Florida
near 30N83W to the Yucatan Channel. Moderate to fresh Nly winds
are on the west side of the trough per scatterometer data while
gentle E-SE winds are noted on the E side. The trough will move E
across Florida by tonight as pressure continues to build across
the Gulf waters.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Attention remains focused on Tropical Storm Eta forecast to
strengthen into a hurricane tonight. It is the first time we have
reached the Greek letter Eta in naming storms. With this tropical
cyclone now in the Caribbean Sea, the all time record of twenty-
eight named storms established in 2005 has been tied. For more
details on T.S. Eta and the associated rainfall amounts, please
see the Special Features section above.

In the eastern Caribbean, fresh to locally strong trade winds
dominates the area with seas of 6-8 ft. Abundant cloudiness with
embedded showers are also noted.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

W of 65W, a stationary front extending along 30N will dissipate
this evening. A strong cold front will sweep across the forecast
area tonight through Tue, and will stall from near 27N65W to the
central Bahamas Tue night before dissipating Wed night. Strong to
near gale force north to northwest winds and building seas are
expected behind the front and will affect both the Bahamas and
the Straits of Florida through Thu as strong high pressure builds
across the region in the wake of the front.

The remainder of the Atlantic forecast area in under the influence
of a 1034 mb high pressure located near 41N48W. Mainly moderate
to locally fresh winds are along the southern periphery of the
Atlantic ridge. A cold front crosses the Canary Islands and
extends SW to near 30N50W where it becomes stationary. A surface
trough is forecast to develop along 36W N of 23N by Mon evening.
The trough will move westward as a strong high pressure builds
over the E and central Atlantic bringing an increase in winds and
seas.

$$
GR
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