[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011730
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Nov 01 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Eta is centered near 14.8N 77.2W at 01/1500 UTC,
or about 196 nm S of Kingston, Jamaica and 348 nm E of Cabo
Gracias a Dios near the Honduras/Nicaragua Border, moving W at
13 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. The
maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt.
Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted near and west of
the center of Eta from 13N-16N between 76W-79W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted across the central Caribbean from
12N-18N between 73W-82W. Peak seas are reaching 15 ft with 12 ft
seas extending within 60 nm in the N semicircle, 45 nm in the SE
quadrant and 30 nm in the SW quadrant. Eta will continue moving
westward while decreasing in forward speed through tonight.  A
slower motion toward the west-southwest is forecast on Monday
and Tuesday.  On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone
is expected to be near the northeastern coasts of Nicaragua and
Honduras by Tuesday morning. Strengthening is forecast during
the next couple of days, and Eta is expected to become a
hurricane by late Monday before it reaches the coast of Central
America by early Tuesday. There is a risk of storm surge,
hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall across portions of
Nicaragua and Honduras.

Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue through Thursday afternoon
and may lead to life-threatening flash flooding and river
flooding across portions of Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and
Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher
terrain. For more information, especially on specific rainfall
amounts for countries to be impacted by Eta, please refer to the
NHC Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov in addition to
bulletins and
forecasts that are provided by your national meteorological
service.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Strong high pressure will build
across the Gulf of Mexico beginning late Sunday night into the
upcoming week in the wake of a strong cold front. As a result,
northerly winds within 60 nm of Veracruz are expected to
increase to gale force starting early on Mon and through late
Mon afternoon, with seas building to near 11 ft there. Please
read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean short-amplitude tropical wave has an axis
along 42W from 11N southward moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are within 50 nm of the wave from
06N-11N.

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave has an axis along 83W from
20N southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. This wave is ahead
of Tropical Storm Eta and is embedded in a very moist and
unstable atmospheric environment. Scattered moderate convection
is moving across Nicaragua and portions of Honduras from 12N-16N
between 82W-86W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
near 11N15W to 10N18W. The ITCZ continues from 10N18W to 05N41W,
then continues west of a tropical wave near 05N42W to the coast
of Brazil near 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
south of the monsoon trough from 01N-07N between 11W-17W.
Scattered moderate convection is along the ITCZ from 02N-11N
between 22W-49W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends off the northern Florida coast near
29N83W to 27N84W. Scattered thunderstorms noted within 70 nm of
the trough, especially just north of the Tampa Bay area.
Moderate to fresh northerly winds are to the west of the trough
and light easterly winds are east of the trough. Another trough
is in the southern Gulf from 25N84W to 21N86W. No significant
convection is associated with this feature. However, moderate to
fresh NNW winds are on the west side of the trough with light to
gentle ENE winds on the east side. Otherwise, high pressure
extends across the rest of the Gulf with moderate to fresh
northerly winds. Seas are averaging 2-3 ft.

A strong cold front will move into the northern Gulf today, and
quickly reach to just southeast of the Gulf early on Mon and to
east of Florida Mon afternoon. Fresh to near gale force
northerly winds are expected across the region tonight through
Tue night. Northerly winds are expected to reach gale force
speeds off Veracruz, Mexico from late tonight through Mon
afternoon. Strong to near gale force winds are expected to
continue over the southeastern Gulf Wed and Thu due to the
combination between strong high pressure centered offshore New
England building south over the Gulf and Tropical Storm Eta in
the Caribbean.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for the latest
information on Tropical Storm Eta and the tropical waves section
on the western Caribbean tropical wave bringing rainfall to
Nicaragua and Honduras.

A trough extends off the coast of the Yucatan and Belize with
showers within 50 nm of it. Scattered moderate convection
continues to move across the southern Lesser Antilles from
11N-15N between 69W-64W. Fresh to near-gale force winds are
noted across the northeast and central Caribbean. Moderate to
fresh winds are noted off the central Cuban coast. Otherwise,
light to moderate easterly winds are in the southern basin and
moderate northerly winds in the western Caribbean. Outside of
the influence of Eta, seas are averaging 3-6 ft.

Tropical Storm Eta will move to 14.9N 78.9W this evening, 14.9N
80.6W Mon morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 14.5N 81.9W
Mon evening, 14.2N 82.7W Tue morning, inland to 13.9N 83.6W Tue
evening, and move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near
13.8N 84.4W Wed morning. Eta will weaken to a tropical
depression while moving inland near 14.1N 86.7W early Thu. A
tropical wave near 83W will continue to move inland Central
America today with heavy showers and thunderstorms, some with
gusty winds.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the central Atlantic from 31N50W to
30N60W then stalls from 30N60W to 26N73W. Showers are noted
within 50 nm of the front. Fresh ENE winds are north of the
front with light SE winds south of the front. Otherwise, surface
ridging extends across the central and eastern Caribbean. Light
to gentle winds prevail across the basin. Seas are averaging
6-11 ft with 3-6 ft around the Bahamas.

The stationary front will dissipate north of 26N by early this
afternoon. A strong cold front will sweep across the forecast
area Sun night through Tue, and will stall from near 27N65W to
the central Bahamas Tue night before dissipating Wed night.
Strong to near gale force north to northwest winds and building
seas are expected behind the front and will affect both the
Bahamas and the Straits of Florida through most of the upcoming
week as strong high pressure builds across the region in the
wake of the front.

$$
AReinhart
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