[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310518
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
118 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES....

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

Tight pressure gradient between low pressure centered over
N Colombia and the Bermuda High will continue to support gale
winds tonight through early tomorrow morning offshore Colombia.
Seas will reach as high as 13 ft by tomorrow morning. Please read
the latest High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest Offshore Waters Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers, or go to the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...Atlantic Gale Warning...

Low pressure will develop off the SE U.S. coast tomorrow
afternoon with an attendant cold front crossing the area tomorrow
night into Thu. SW gale winds are forecast to develop ahead of
the front by late tomorrow night N of 30N and E of 75W, then
spread E with time, as far E as 60W into Wed night. In addition,
behind the front, W to NW gale winds may develop generally N of
30N between 60W and 70W Wed night into Thu morning. Seas of up to
15 ft will develop Tue night and continue through Thu night.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC, the latest Offshore Waters
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers, or go to the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 11N16W
to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to 00N49W. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are noted from 01S-02N and west of 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak E-W pressure gradient from the 1018 mb Bermuda High
centered just east of Florida and lower pressure over Mexico is
causing generally a gentle to moderate SE breeze over the basin.
Peak seas reach only 5 ft across the area. Current observations
are reporting reduced visibilities due to fog over the northwest
Gulf, mainly north of 27N and west of 90W. No significant showers
or thunderstorms are occurring over the Gulf currently.

A cold front will reach the Texas coast overnight,
then move SE through the Gulf, exiting the basin on Wed night.
Ahead of the front, strong SW winds and building seas are expected
across the far N Gulf through the day today. Behind the front,
fresh to strong N winds are expected over the same area Wed
morning. Winds and seas will diminish across much of the basin Wed
night through the end of the week as high pressure builds into
the E Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
the Gale Warning off the coast of Colombia.

A moderate N-S pressure gradient from a 1018 mb Bermuda High
centered near 26N70W to a 1006 mb low over Colombia is causing
generally fresh to strong trades across the Caribbean, with the
exception of gale winds just north of Colombia. No significant
shower or thunderstorm activity is occurring over the Caribbean.
Peak seas are near 11 ft just north of Colombia currently.

Weakening high pressure N of the area will support
gales near the coast of Colombia overnight, and fresh to strong
winds elsewhere in the central Caribbean through the morning hours.
Fresh to strong winds will also pulse tonight in the Windward
Passage and in the Gulf of Honduras. The high pressure will move
southward toward the N Caribbean into late week, leading to
calming winds and seas for the remainder of the week. A cold front
will enter the NW Caribbean on Wed night, reaching the Windward
Passage Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
the Gale Warning N of the Bahamas.

The 1018 mb Bermuda High is centered just east of Florida near
26N70W. Winds west of 60W are generally gentle to moderate.
Farther east, a cold front extends from a 1000 mb low near 34N47W
to 34N35W to 23N40W to 18N50W. The front then becomes stationary
from that point to 19N60W. Ahead of the front and north of 25N,
SW strong breeze and peak seas of 14 ft prevail; while behind the
front north of 29N, NW strong breeze with peak seas of 8 ft are
occurring. To the east, a frontal enters the east Atlantic,
analyzed as a cold front from 31N09W to 28N13. The front then becomes
stationary from that point to 29N24W to 31N29W. Scattered showers
are occurring along these fronts.

Weakening high pressure NE of the Turks and Caicos will drift S
and out of the area by mid-week. A low pressure will strengthens
off the Georgia coast overnight. This low will pull a cold front
across the waters Tue evening through late week. SW gale winds and
building seas will develop ahead of the front Tue night through
Wed N of 27N. NW gales are also likely behind the front N of 28N
and E of 73W late Wed and Wed night. Large northerly swell will
propagate southward across the region early Thu through Sun.

$$

ERA
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