[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311028
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
628 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES....

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

Tight pressure gradient between low pressure centered over
N Colombia and the Bermuda High will support gales early this
morning. Seas will reach as high as 14 ft this morning. Please
read the latest High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest Offshore Waters Forecast
under AWIPS/WMO headers, or go to the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...Atlantic Gale Warning...

Lower pressure with strengthen along the Georgia coast this
afternoon, sending a cold front off the Florida coast by evening.
Ahead of the front, SW gales will develop tonight N of 28N, and
progress E from 76W as the front orients from S of Bermuda into
the SE Bahamas by Wed night. Some gales may linger ahead of the
front into early Thu as far E as 58W. Behind the cold front, NW
gales will develop N of 28N between 62W and 76W Wed into early
Thu. Another round of NW gales may surge into the area late Thu
night through Fri night N of 29N between 62W and 68W. Seas of up
to 18 ft are expected over the gales area starting late Tue and
and continuing into at least Fri. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC,
the latest Offshore Waters Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers, or
go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml,
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the Sierra Leone coast near
09N14W to 04N23W. The ITCZ then continues from 04N23W to 00N48W.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are located within
120 nm of either side of these boundaries from the coast of Africa
to Brazil, with the most concentrated areas of thunderstorms near
the Brazilian coast.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure centered E of the area is dominating the Gulf this
morning, creating gentle to moderate SE winds, with seas less than
5 ft, along with dry conditions.

A cold front will enter the NW Gulf early this morning, then move
SE and out of the Gulf by Wed evening. Ahead of the front, strong
SW winds and seas of 8 to 9 ft are expected to develop my midday
over the far NE Gulf and continue through the evening. Behind the
front, strong N winds are expected over the same area late tonight
into Wed morning. Winds and seas will diminish across much of the
basin late Wed, and remain relatively tranquil through the end of
the week as high pressure builds into the E Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
the Gale Warning off the coast of Colombia.

Low pressure over N Colombia is weakening this morning, which will
allow the gales to end later this morning. Otherwise, moderate
trades and dry conditions prevail over the Caribbean.

With high pressure to the N weakening as it moves S, and low
pressure over N Colombia weakening, the pressure gradient will
relax as winds and seas will diminish through the central
Caribbean today. Still, some strong winds are expected off the
Colombian coast through early Wed, and fresh winds will pulse this
evening in the Gulf of Honduras. A cold front will pass through
the Yucatan Chanel Wed evening, then stretch from near the
Windward Passage to the Cayman Islands by early Fri, before
stalling.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
the Gale Warning N of the Bahamas.

A 1018 mb high pressure is centered near the N Bahamas this
morning, leaving gentle to moderate winds in place across most of
the SW Atlantic. A cold front extends from 31N32W to just E of the
Leeward Islands. Behind this front N of 27N between 35W and 45W,
strong W winds and seas of up to 13 feet are being observed. Also,
a cold front is stilling over the Canary Islands due to a high
pressure centered near 25N24W.

This afternoon, low pressure will strengthen along the Georgia
coast, forcing a cold front off the SE U.S. coast tonight, as the
low tracks NE. This front will reach just N of the Leeward Islands
by late Thu, before becoming stationary. Ahead of the front, SW
gales will develop and seas will build tonight N of 28N and E of
78W, and expand eastward through Wed. NW gales are also forecast
behind the front over the same area Wed and Wed night.

$$
KONARIK
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