[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 302323
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2246 UTC Mon Mar 30 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES....

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

Tight pressure gradient between low pressure centered over
N Colombia and the Bermuda High will continue to support gales
tonight and early tomorrow morning offshore Colombia. Seas are
likely to reach as high as 13 ft tomorrow morning. Please read
the latest High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC, the latest Offshore Waters Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers, or go to the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...Atlantic Gale Warning...

Low pressure will develop off the SE U.S. coast tomorrow
afternoon with an attendant cold front crossing the area tomorrow
night into Thu. SW gales are forecast to develop ahead of the
front late tomorrow night N of 30N along and E of 75W, then
spread E with time, as far E as 60W into Wed night. In addition,
behind the front, W to NW gales may develop generally N of 30N
between 60W and 70W Wed night into Thu morning. Seas of up to 15
ft will develop Tue night and continue through Thu night. Please
read the latest High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC, the latest Offshore Waters
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers, or go to the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W to 00N26W to
the coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms are from 05S-00N west of 30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak E-W pressure gradient from the 1021 mb Bermuda High
centered just east of Florida and lower pressure over Mexico is
causing generally a gentle to moderate SE breeze over the Gulf. Peak
seas reach only 5 ft. A warm front is just north of the Gulf,
lying E-W across SE Texas to S Georgia. No significant showers or
thunderstorms are occurring over the Gulf currently.

A cold front will approach the Texas coast tonight and move into
the NW Gulf on Tue, then pass SE across the Gulf through Wed
night. Fresh to strong SW winds and building seas are expected in
the northern Gulf ahead of the front Tue into Tue night,
followed by fresh to strong northerly winds over the NE Gulf late
Tue night into Wed. Winds and seas will diminish across much of
the basin Wed night through the end of the week as high pressure
builds into the eastern Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
the Gale Warning off the coast of Colombia.

A moderate N-S pressure gradient from a 1021 mb Bermuda High
centered near 26N73W to a 1008 mb low over Colombia is causing
generally fresh to strong trades across the Caribbean, with the
exception of near gale to gales just north of Colombia. No
significant shower or thunderstorm activity is occurring over the
Caribbean. Peak seas are near 11 ft just north of Colombia
currently.

High pressure north of the area will support pulsing gales near
the coast of Colombia tonight, with fresh to strong trades
elsewhere across the central Caribbean through Tue. This high
pressure will weaken and move eastward Tue night into Wed,
allowing winds and seas to diminish across the basin Wed through
Fri night. The tail end of a cold front will move across the NW
Caribbean Wed night through Thu night, and cross the Windward
Passage on Fri. Northerly swell will reach the waters east of the
Leeward Islands Fri through Sat night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
the Gale Warning N of the Bahamas.

The 1021 mb Bermuda High is centered just east of Florida near
26N73W. Winds west of 60W are generally gentle to moderate. Farther
east, a cold front extends from a 1002 mb low near 35N38W to 32N37W
to 23N42W to 20N60W. Ahead of the front north of 28N, SW strong
breeze and peak seas of 14 ft prevail; while behind the front
north of 29N, NW strong breeze with peak seas of 8 ft are
occurring. A warm front also extends from the 1002 mb low to
28N22W. The front transitions to a cold front from 28N22W to
32N10W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring north
of 28N between 30W and 35W.

High pressure east of the Bahamas will drift SE and weaken
through Tue. A weak cold front will move into the far northern
waters late tonight and stall early Tue, then lift N as a warm
front later Tue as strengthening low pressure moves off the SE
U.S. coast. This low will pull a strong cold front across the
waters Tue night through late this week. Expect SW gales and
building seas across the waters N of 27N ahead of the front Tue
night and Wed. Gales are also possible behind the front across
the northern waters late Wed and Wed night. Large northerly swell
will propagate southward across the region Thu through Sat
night.

$$
Landsea
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