[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301744
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
144 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1720 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES....

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

Tight pressure gradient between low pressure centered over
northern Colombia and high pressure in the western Atlantic will
continue to support gales early this morning and again tonight
offshore Colombia. Seas are likely to reach as high as 13 ft
tonight and into Tues morning. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC,
the latest Offshore Waters Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers, or go
to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for
more details.

...Atlantic Gale Warning...

Low pressure will develop off the SE U.S. coast by Tue with an
attendant cold front crossing the area Tue night into Thu. SW
gales are forecast to develop ahead of the front late Tue night N
of 28N along and E of 77W, then spread E with time, as far E as
59W into Wed night. In addition, behind the front, W to NW gales
may develop generally N of 29N between 60W and 70W Wed night into
Thu morning. Seas of up to 15 ft will develop Tue night and
continue through Thu night. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC,
the latest Offshore Waters Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers, or go
to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N12W to 03N18W. The ITCZ continues from 03N18W to 00N29W to the
coast of Brazil near 03N40W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
noted within 200 nm either side of both features E of 33W. A
cluster of strong convection is along the ITCZ near the Brazilian
coast from 05S-01S and W of 32W.


GULF OF MEXICO...

The warm front has lifted north of the Gulf across most of the
Gulf coast states, with a small portion of the cold front off the
coast of the Florida Panhandle. Scattered showers and clouds are
moving across the northern Gulf. The mid-level ridge continues to
be centered across the central and southern Gulf which is keeping
conditions benign through those areas. A trough in the Bay of
Campeche is noted from 25N94W to 18N94W. The latest scatterometer
data depicts moderate to fresh SE winds in the eastern Bay of
Campeche and portions of the western Gulf, with light to gentle
winds elsewhere. Wave heights range from 2 to 4 ft.

A warm front will continue lifting northward and move inland
later today. A cold front will move off the Texas coast Tue and
across the basin through Wed night. Fresh to strong SW winds and
building seas are expected in the NE Gulf ahead of the front late
Tue into Tue night. Behind the cold front, expect fresh to locally
strong northerly winds over the NE Gulf late Tue night into Wed.
Then, winds and seas will diminish Wed night through the end of
the week as high pressure builds into the eastern Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
the Gale Warning off the coast of Colombia.

Scattered quick moving showers are located across much of the
Caribbean early this morning. Strong trade winds are occurring
north of Colombia. Fresh to strong trades are occurring in the
central Caribbean and the Windward Passage, with gentle to
moderate trades are elsewhere. Seas of 3 to 7 ft are being
observed over much of the central and SW Caribbean, and seas up
to 9 ft near the Colombian coast.

High pressure north of the area will support pulsing gales near
the coast of Colombia tonight, with fresh to strong trades
elsewhere across the central Caribbean through Tue. This high
pressure will weaken and move eastward Tue night into Wed,
allowing winds and seas to diminish across the region Wed through
Fri night. The tail end of a cold front may cross the Windward
Passage late Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
the Gale Warning N of the Bahamas.

A trough extends off the Florida coast in the western Atlantic
from 31N78W to 27N80W. A 1022 mb high pressure is centered near
27N72W. A cold front stretches from 31N39W to 24N45W to 21N59W. A
dying warm front is noted from 31N60W to 23N57W. Strong to near
gale force WNW winds are behind this front, with fresh moderate
to fresh S winds ahead of the front. Seas are up to 12 ft.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted ahead of
this front, mainly N of 26N between 31W and 38W. Farther east, a
1017 mb surface high is centered near 24N24W. To the N of this
high, a cold front is sinking southward across the Canary Islands
from 30N14W to 28N23W. The front transitions to a warm front from
28N23W and stretches northward to 31N31W.

High pressure east of the Bahamas will drift S and weaken through
Tue. A weak cold front will move into the far northern waters
late tonight and stall early Tue, then lift N as a warm front
later Tue as strengthening low pressure moves off the SE U.S.
coast. This low will pull a strong cold front across the waters
Tue night through late this week. Expect SW gales and building
seas across the northern waters ahead of the front Tue night and
Wed. Gales are also possible S of Bermuda Wed night behind the
front. Elsewhere, northerly swell will propagate southward across
the region Wed through Fri night.

$$
AReinhart
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net