[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301038
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
638 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES....

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

Tight pressure gradient between low pressure centered over
northern Colombia and high pressure centered between Bermuda and
the Turks and Caicos Islands will continue to support gales early
this morning and again tonight offshore Colombia. Seas are likely
to reach as high as 14 ft this morning and again late tonight.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC, the latest Offshore Waters
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers, or go to the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.


...Atlantic Gale Warning...

Low pressure will develop off the SE U.S. coast by Tue, with the
attendant cold front crossing the area Tue night into Thu. SW
gales are forecast to develop ahead of the front late Tue night N
of 28N along and E of 77W, then spread E with time, as far E as
60W into Wed night. In addition, behind the front, NW gales may
develop generally N of 29N between 60W and 70W Wed night into Thu
morning. Seas of up to 15 ft will develop Tue night and continue
through Thu night. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast
product, under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC, the
latest Offshore Waters Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers, or go to
the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to
09N18W. The ITCZ then continues from 09N18W to 00N43W. Scattered
showers are noted within 120 nm either side of both features.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front that extends from near Mobile, Alabama to near
Corpus Christi, Texas is beginning to transition into a warm
front. To the S and E of the front, moderate SE winds are
occurring over much of the W Gulf. A weak trough is analyzed over
the eastern Bay of Campeche from 24N93W to 19N94W. Moderate to
fresh E winds are occurring between this trough and the Yucatan
Peninsula. Wave heights are generally below 5 ft, except for some
up to 7 ft to the NW of the Yucatan.

High pressure has moved to the E of the Gulf this morning, but
will continue to dominate weather into Tue. The front over the far
NW Gulf will lift N as a warm front and move inland this evening.
A cold front will move off the Texas coast Tue evening and cross
the basin by Thu morning. Ahead of this front, fresh to strong SW
winds are likely in the NE Gulf Tue afternoon and night. Behind
the front, strong NW to N winds are possible over the far N Gulf
early Wed. Looking ahead, moderate return SE flow should develop
over much of the Gulf by Thu night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
the Gale Warning off the coast of Colombia.

Scattered quick moving showers are located across much of the
Caribbean early this morning. Fresh to strong trade winds are
occurring over the central Caribbean, Windward Passage, and Gulf
of Honduras, with gentle to moderate trades are elsewhere. Seas of
8 to 10 ft are being observed over much of the central and SW
Caribbean, higher over the aforementioned Gale Warning area.

High pressure centered over the west Atlantic will maintain fresh
to strong trades over the central Caribbean into Tue. Fresh to
strong winds will pulse during the evenings through Tue over the
Gulf of Honduras. Thereafter, winds and seas will diminish across
the region for the middle and latter parts of the week as high
pressure builds over the Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
the Gale Warning N of the Bahamas.

A 1022 mb high pressure is centered near 26N68W. A cold front
stretches from 31N39W to 22N54W to 27N61W, then transitioning to a
warm front that extends up to 31N62W. Moderate to fresh NW winds
are behind this front with seas up to 10 ft. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are noted ahead of this front, mainly N of
23N between 33W and 39W. Farther E, a 1016 mb surface high is
centered near 27N28W. To the N and E of this High, a cold front
stretches just NW of the Canary Islands. The front then becomes
stationary to 29N27W and NW to 31N33W

High pressure in the west Atlantic will drift and weaken into
mid-week. A cold front will approach 30N, W of 56W tonight, then
stall through Tue night, before lifting as a warm front as low
pressure develops off the SE U.S. coast. This low's trailing cold
front will move east across the waters, bringing gale force winds
ahead and behind it N of 28N between 71W and 58W from late Tue
night into early Thu. Significant NW and N swell will bring seas
to around 15 feet over this same area Wed into Fri.

$$
KONARIK
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