[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300525
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
124 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES....

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

Tight pressure gradient between low pressure centered over
northern Colombia and high pressure centered between Bermuda and
the Bahamas will continue supporting nightly gales pulsing off
the coast of Colombia through at Mon night. Seas may reach near
14 ft by early morning. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast
product, under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC, the
latest Offshore Waters Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers, or go to
the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 10N14W to
09N18W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 05N29W to 02S44W.
Scattered showers are noted within 200 nm north of the ITCZ
mainly west of 35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends across the northern portion of the
basin from 30N88W to 26N97W, then continues south across northeast
Mexico. Scatterometer data depicts moderate winds in the vicinity
of the front and across the western half of the Gulf. To the
southwest, a surface trough is analyzed over the Bay of Campeche,
from 24N96W to 19N96W. Significant wave heights are ranging
between 3 to 5 ft across the basin, with 6 ft seas near the
Texas coast and the northern coast of the Yucatan peninsula.

High pressure over the far NE Gulf will weak and slide
SE early this week. The stationary front will lift north as a
warm front Mon and inland by Mon night. A cold front will move off
the Texas coast late Tue and cross the basin by early Thu. Ahead
of this front, fresh to strong SW winds are possible in the NE
Gulf Tue and Tue night. Then, behind the front, strong NW winds
are expected over the far N Gulf Wed. Strong E winds just N and W
of the Yucatan Peninsula will diminish overnight.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
the Gale Warning off the coast of Colombia.

Quick moving showers are noted across the basin. The latest
scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong trade winds off the
Colombia coast and into the central Caribbean. Fresh to strong
winds also extend northward to the southern coast of Hispaniola,
including the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate trades are
elsewhere. Significant wave heights are ranging between 3 to 8
ft, with 9 ft north of Colombia.

Gale force winds will pulse near the coast of Colombia tonight
and Mon night. High pressure centered over the west Atlantic will
maintain fresh to strong trades over the central Caribbean into
Tue. Fresh to strong winds will pulse each evening through Tue
over the Gulf of Honduras. Thereafter, winds and seas will
diminish across the region for the middle and latter parts of the
week as high pressure builds over the Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1024 mb high pressure is centered near 28N66W. To the east, a
cold front enters our waters near 31N41W 25N49W to 25N57W, then
becomes stationary from that point to 31N62W. Moderate to fresh
NW winds are behind this front with seas up to 9 ft. Scattered
showers are noted along and in the vicinity of the cold front
mainly north of 25N between 38W-42W. A 1018 mb surface high is
centered near 25N28W. A cold front is analyzed north of this high,
extending from 31N16W to 28N22W to 29N29W.

High pressure in the west Atlantic will move SE and weaken early
this week. This will allow a cold front to approach the northern
waters Monday evening then stall along 30N through Tuesday. Low
pressure will then develop along this front just N of the area,
causing the southern part of the front to accelerate east Tue
night into Thu across the waters. Gale force SW winds are likely
ahead of this front Wed N of 28N and E of 69W. Significant NW and
N swell will bring seas to over 12 feet over this same area Wed
into Fri.

$$

ERA
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