[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251759
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
159 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 05N09W to 02N18W, where it transitions to ITCZ. ITCZ
continues from that point to 00N33W and ends near the coast of
Brazil, 00S49W. Scattered moderate convection along the monsoon
trough is from 01N-05N and east of 19W and along the ITCZ from
03N-02N between 28W-36W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is also noted about 180 nm north and south of the
ITCZ and west of 36W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level anticyclonic circulation center in the SW corner
of the Gulf of Mexico is providing broad anticyclonic wind flow
aloft and stable weather conditions across the entire Gulf of
Mexico. A surface ridge extends from the Atlantic Ocean, across
southern Florida, to the central Gulf of Mexico. Fresh easterly
winds are found off the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula,
while moderate SW to W winds prevail across the northern coastal
waters from Texas to the Florida Panhandle.

Broken to overcast low level clouds and areas of fog prevail
across the Texas and Louisiana coastal waters west of 87W. Area
oil rigs report visibilities generally were ranging from 3 to 6
miles, with a few reporting 2 to 4 miles. This fog is expected to
burn off today.

High pressure will prevail through early Thu. A weak frontal
trough will sink S into the NE Gulf coastal waters Thu morning
before dissipating Thu night. High pressure will then build
across the NE Gulf Fri through Sat. A cold front will move into
the western Gulf Sat night, with a modest increase in winds and
seas expected behind the front. The front will stall and dissipate
over the northern Gulf Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough is sinking slowly southward across the
central and eastern Caribbean, extending from the W Atlantic
across PR into central Caribbean. This pattern is producing
sinking motion and stable conditions across the W Caribbean
west of 70W, while enhancing showers and a few thunderstorms
associated with a low level trough moving across Hispaniola
and the eastern Caribbean. This trough will shift westward
today and remain active over the waters north of 14N to the
southern coast of PR and Hispaniola. ASCAT data indicates
moderate easterly trades across the region with isolated
area of fresh winds south of PR and Hispaniola.

High pressure across the W Atlc will maintain fresh to strong
trades over the south-central Caribbean. Minimal gale force
winds are possible Fri night, Sat night, and Sun night. Fresh
to locally strong winds will pulse each night in the Gulf of
Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1005 mb low pressure moving off the Carolinas is inducing
fresh to strong southwesterly winds north of 29N. A surface
trough is noted in the western Atlantic extending from 31N75W
to 26N79W. Scattered showers and tstorms are observed in the
satellite imagery on the eastern side of the trough. Further
east, a stationary front has stalled from 31N28W to 30N41W. A
line of scattered showers continue along the boundary. ASCAT
data this morning showed fresh northerly winds behind the front
and light easterly winds to the south. A pair of weak troughs
are noted in the eastern Atlantic, one south of the Canary
Islands and the second trough from 25N22W to 19N26W. Both of
these trough are very well depicted by the ASCAT. Scattered
showers accompany both trough along the trough axis. Remainder
of the basin is dominated by high pressure.

High pressure will prevail through tonight. A cold front will
move across the waters north of 22N late tonight through Fri
night. Associated northerly swell will propagate across the
northern waters Thu night through Fri night. High pressure will
build across the northern waters in the wake of the front late Fri
and prevail through Sun.

$$
Torres
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