[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251054
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
654 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...
Gale-force winds, with sea heights reaching to 10 feet, are
present within 45 nm of the coast of Colombia between 74W and 75W.
This small area of gale-force winds are forecast to diminish to
25-30 kt by around sunrise this morning and then fall to 20-25 kt
by noon. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST:
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST:
MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, from the NWS
National Hurricane Center, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W to 05N12.5W to 02.5N20W, where it transitions to
ITCZ, continuing on to 02N26W to 01S30W to 01N38W to coastal
Brazil near 01S47.5W. Scattered moderate isolated strong is from
02N to 07.5N between 04W and 19W, from 01S to 04N between 28W and
48W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level anticyclonic circulation center is in the SW corner
of the Gulf of Mexico, providing broad anticyclonic wind flow
aloft and stable weather conditions across the entire Gulf of
Mexico. A surface ridge extends from 28N66W in the Atlantic
Ocean, across southern Florida near 26N80W, to the central Gulf
of Mexico near 25N90W. Fresh easterly winds are found off the
northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, while moderate SW to W
winds prevail across the northern coastal waters from Texas to the
Florida Panhandle. and then toward the border of the Deep South
of Texas with NE Mexico.

Broken to overcast low level clouds, and areas of fog prevail
across the Texas and Louisiana coastal waters. Area oil rigs
report visibilities generally were ranging from 3 to 6 miles, with
a few reporting 2 to 4 miles. This fog is expected to burn off as
the sun rises this morning.

The surface high pressure will prevail through early Thursday. A
weak frontal trough is expected to sink S into the NE Gulf coastal
waters on Thursday morning before dissipating on Thursday night.
High pressure will build westward across the NE Gulf of Mexico,
from Friday through Saturday, and produce fresh to strong return
flow W of 88W. A cold front will move into the western Gulf of
Mexico early Saturday night, with a modest increase in the winds
and seas expected behind the front. The front will stall and
dissipate in the northern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough is sinking slowly southward across the
central and western Caribbean, extending from the W Atlantic
across Hispaniola to NE Nicaragua. This pattern is producing
sinking motion and stable conditions across the W and SW
Caribbean, while enhancing showers and a few thunderstorms
associated with a low level trough moving across Puerto Rico and
the eastern Caribbean. This trough will shift westward today and
remain active, especially to the west of the trough axis.

High pressure extending E-to-W across the W Atlantic Ocean, and
into the Gulf of Mexico along 27N/28Nm, will maintain fresh to
strong trade winds in the south central Caribbean Sea through this
week. Minimal gale-force winds are expected on Friday night, on
Saturday night, and on Sunday night, as new high pressure moves
across the subtropical Atlantic Ocean. Fresh to locally strong
winds will pulse each night in the Gulf of Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front has stalled just north of the discussion area from
33N67W to the SE coast of North Carolina. SW winds are increasing
across the offshore waters of N Florida and Georgia, and leading
to an area of scattered moderate to strong convection from 31N to
the front between 73W and coastal Carolina.

A surface trough is along 60W/61W from 22N to 30N, with broken
low level clouds and possible rainshowers from 22N northward
between 60W and 63W. this trough breaks the Atlantic ridge
extending into the region, with an old high center weakening near
27.5N66W extending westward across the NW Bahamas to the Florida
Peninsula and then W-SW into the Gulf of Mexico. This ridge will
prevail across the area through Wednesday night and gradually
weaken. Fresh to strong southwest winds will develop offshore of
Florida on Wednesday into Wednesday night as deepening low
pressure moves ENE off the middle Atlantic coast. A cold front is
expected to move southward across the waters to the north of 22N,
from late Wed night through Friday night. Associated northerly
swell generated by the low pressure will propagate across the
northern waters from Thursday night through Friday night. New high
pressure will move SE into the northern waters in the wake of the
front late on Friday, and remain stationary in the vicinity of
30N67W through late Sunday.

$$
Stripling
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