[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250534
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
134 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...
Gale-force winds, and sea heights reaching 9 feet, are present
within 45 nm of the coast of Colombia between 74W and 75W. The
gale-force winds are forecast to slow down to less than gale-force
on Wednesday morning. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST:
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST:
MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, from the NWS
National Hurricane Center, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W, to 05N13W, 04N17W, 03N19W, and 03N26W. The
ITCZ continues from 03N26W, and it passes across the Equator
along 28W. The ITCZ continues in the area that is from 01S to the
Equator, between 27W and 30W. The ITCZ crosses the Equator again,
along 33W/34W, and it goes to 01N38W 01N44W, to 02N47W, and to
01N49W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and
isolated strong is from 02N to 06N between 04W and 18W, from 01S
to 01N between 28W and 32W, and within 150 nm to the north of the
ITCZ between 40W and 45W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is
elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level anticyclonic circulation center is in the SW corner
of the Gulf of Mexico. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow
spans the entire Gulf of Mexico. A surface ridge passes through
29N77W in the Atlantic Ocean, across Florida near 28N83W, into
the north central Gulf of Mexico, and then toward the border of
the Deep South of Texas with NE Mexico.

Broken to overcast low level clouds, and some fog are in the
north central and northwestern sections of the Gulf of Mexico.
The visibilities generally were ranging from 3 miles to 6 miles.
Some isolated cases consisted of visibilities that were in the
range from 2 miles to 3 miles.

High pressure, extending W across the Atlantic Ocean and into the
Gulf of Mexico along 26N, will prevail through early Thursday. A
weak frontal trough is expected to sink S into the NE Gulf coastal
waters on Thursday morning before dissipating on Thursday night.
High pressure will build westward across the NE Gulf of Mexico,
from Friday through Saturday, in order to produce fresh to strong
return flow W of 88W. A cold front will move into the western
Gulf of Mexico on Saturday and Saturday night, with a modest
increase in the wind speeds and the sea heights expected behind
the front. The front will stall and dissipate in the northern
Gulf of Mexico on Sunday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough cuts across the SE half of the Cuba, across
Las Islas Santanillas of Honduras, toward central sections of
Nicaragua. The 700 mb GFS model forecast shows an E-to-W oriented
trough along from 13N to 15N between 61W and 70W. The 500 mb GFS
model forecast shows a more NE-to-SW oriented trough in the same
general area. A surface trough is along 67W/68W from 12N to the SW
corner of Puerto Rico.

Precipitation: Rainshowers are possible from 12N to 18N from 84W
eastward, in broken low level clouds. 24-hour rainfall totals that
are listed for the period that ended at 25/0000 UTC, according to
the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES,
MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are: 0.40 in Guadeloupe.

High pressure extending E-to-W across the W Atlantic Ocean, and
into the Gulf of Mexico along 27N/28Nm, will maintain fresh to
strong trade winds in the south central Caribbean Sea through
this week. Minimal gale-force winds are expected offshore the
coast of Colombia briefly tonight. The gale-force winds are
possible again on Friday night, on Saturday night, and on Sunday
night, as new high pressure moves across the subtropical Atlantic
Ocean. Fresh to strong northeast winds through the Windward
Passage and south of Hispaniola will diminish tonight. Fresh to
locally strong winds will pulse each night in the Gulf of
Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N30W, to 31N32W. A stationary front
continues in the central Atlantic Ocean, from 31N32W to 30N40W
30N50W, and 31N53W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong within 180 nm to the SE of the cold front/
stationary front from 33W toward the east and northeast,
continuing beyond 32N. Scattered to broken low level clouds, and
possible rainshowers, are to the north of the stationary front.

A surface trough is along 60W/61W from 22N to 30N. Precipitation:
broken low level clouds and possible rainshowers are from 20N
northward between 60W and 63W.

High pressure will extend westward, along 26N/28N, and into the
Gulf of Mexico through Wednesday night. Fresh to strong southwest
winds will build the seas offshore of Florida on Wednesday into
Wednesday night. A cold front is expected to move across the
waters that are to the north of 22N, from late Wed night through
Friday night. Associated northerly swell will propagate across
the northern waters from Thursday night through Friday night. New
high pressure will move SE into the northern waters in the wake
of the front late on Friday, and remain stationary through late
Sunday.

$$
MT
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