[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252318
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0630 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2215 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 05N09W to 02N19W, where it transitions to ITCZ. ITCZ
continues from that point to 01S36W and ends near the coast of
Brazil, 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection along the monsoon
trough is from 01N-05N and east of 19W and along the ITCZ from
02S-02N between 29W-49W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level anticyclonic circulation center in the SW corner
of the Gulf of Mexico is providing broad anticyclonic wind flow
aloft and stable weather conditions across the entire Gulf of
Mexico. A surface ridge extends from the Atlantic Ocean, across
southern Florida, to the central Gulf of Mexico. Moderate SE
winds are just off the western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula,
while light winds prevail across the northwest and southeast
portion of the Gulf.

Broken to overcast low level clouds have burned off across the
Texas and Louisiana coastal waters west of 87W. Observations
showed visibilities improving across the waters.

High pressure will prevail through early Thu. A weak frontal
trough will sink S into the NE Gulf coastal waters Thu morning
before dissipating Thu night. High pressure will then build
across the NE Gulf Fri through Sat. A cold front will move into
the western Gulf Sat night, with a modest increase in winds and
seas expected behind the front. The front will stall and
dissipate over the northern Gulf Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A middle to upper level trough across the central and eastern
Caribbean continue to support a surface trough with axis near
the Mona Passage. With the upper atmospheric conditions in place
and shallow moisture moving across this region, scattered to
isolated showers are likely for portions of Puerto Rico, the
Dominican Republic and adjacent waters to 14N. The trough will
continue to move westward and reach the Windward Passage by Thu
morning where it will dissipate. Fair weather is across the
western half of the Caribbean under the influence of ridging
aloft and deep layered dry air. Except for the south-central
Caribbean gentle to moderate trades are elsewhere and will
prevail through Fri night. High pressure will build over the SW
N Atlc waters over the remainder weekend, which will lead to
fresh to locally strong winds over the central Caribbean and
moderate to fresh trades over the eastern forecast waters.

High pressure across the W Atlc will maintain fresh to strong
trades over the south-central Caribbean with minimal gale force
winds possible Fri night, Sat night, and Sun night. Otherwise,
fresh to locally strong winds will pulse each night in the Gulf
of Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A pre-frontal trough ahead of a low pressure system east of the
Carolinas is supporting fresh to strong southwesterly winds
north of 28N between 70W and 80W. Scattered showers and tstms
associated with the trough are N of 30N between 72W and 75W.
Over the northeastern Atlc, a stationary front extends from
30N28W to 27N36W to 29N41W with isolated showers within 105 nm
ahead of it. The front will dissipate by Thu morning. However,
seas to 11 ft in NE swell associated with the front will
gradually subside through Fri. A surface trough ahead of the
front and just W of the Canary Islands is supporting isolated
showers N of 28N. The remainder of the north-central Atlc is
under the influence of a surface ridge and generally fair
weather.

A cold front will move across the SW N Atlc waters north of 22N
late tonight through Fri night. Associated northerly swell will
propagate across the northern waters Thu night through Fri
night. High pressure will build across the northern waters in
the wake of the front late Fri and prevail through Sun.
Otherwise, a cold front will move into the northern waters Mon.

$$
Ramos
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