[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 232330
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
730 PM EDT Mon Mar 23 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: Fresh to strong winds in the south-
central Caribbean will increase to gale force tonight and
prevail through early Tue. Significant wave heights are likely
to peak around 12 ft in the gales area near the coast of
Colombia during the overnight hours. Near gale force winds are
expected in this region at night through the end of the week.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N13W to 00N20W to 01S30W. The ITCZ continues from 01S30W to
00N36W to 03N42W to 02N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection extends from 03S to 08N between 06W and 32W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 01N to 05N between 36W and
51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Return gentle to moderate winds dominate the gulf waters along
with fair weather conditions being supported by a middle to
upper level ridge. Latest altimeter and surface data indicate
sea heights in the 2 to 4 ft range.

A high pressure ridge will generally prevail across E Gulf of
Mexico through Fri night. This will help support generally
quiescent winds and seas through Fri night across most of the
Gulf. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will develop offshore of the
Yucatan Peninsula tonight, then diminish on Tue. A cold front
may reach the W Gulf on Sat with increasing winds and seas
behind the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section above for more details
about a gale warning off the coast of Colombia.

A mid-level low covering the central and eastern Caribbean
continue to support showers and isolated tstms over the north-
central and NE basin, including Puerto Rico, the Mona Passage
and the Dominican Republic. Isolated showers are occuring in the
USVI and Leeward Islands. This area of showers will continue to
move westward with the trade winds and dissipate Tue evening S
of Haiti.

The Bermuda High will maintain generally fresh to strong trades
over S-central Caribbean through the week. NE trades off the
coast of Colombia will pulse to gale force tonight. Fresh to
strong NE winds will continue through the Windward Passage and
south of Hispaniola through tonight, then diminish slightly
through midweek. Short-period NE swell across the waters east of
the Leeward Islands will subside gradually by Tue night. Fresh
to locally strong winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of
Honduras Tue night through Sat night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Surface ridging dominates across the subtropical Atlc waters.
Over, the north-central Atlc a middle to upper level trough
continue to support a pair of troughs. The westernmost trough
extends from 28N55W to 21N52W and the easternmost trough extends
from 30N49W to 22N46W. No precipitation is associated with these
features. Showers and isolated tstms are over Puerto Rico and
the Dominican Republic adjacent waters associated with a broad
middle level low centered south of Hispaniola. Showers in this
region will prevail through tonight as its middle level support
dissipates.

The Bermuda High will persist across NW waters for the next few
days. Fresh to strong SW winds will develop east of Florida Wed,
ahead of a cold front that is expected to move across the N
waters late Wed night through Fri while weakening. The Bermuda
High will then rebuild over the N waters late Fri through Sat
night.

$$
Ramos
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