[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240523
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
123 AM EDT Tue Mar 24 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: Gale force winds are ongoing north of
Colombia, from 11N-12N between 74W-76W. This will continue through
early Tues morning, 24/1200 UTC. Significant wave heights are
likely to peak around 11 ft near the coast of Colombia during the
gale event. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by
the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02
KNHC/HSFAT2 or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W
to 00N15W to 02S24W. The ITCZ continues from 02S24W to 04S31W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted along
the monsoon trough from 03S-06N between 08W-23W. Isolated showers
are within 200 nm of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A mid-level ridge centered over Mexico is bringing subsidence to
most of the Gulf. High clouds can be seen in the eastern Gulf.
Surface ridging prevails anchored by a 1022 mb high near 29N84W.
The latest scatterometer data depicts fresh easterly winds north
of the Yucatan. Gentle to moderate southeasterly winds are noted
in the western and central Gulf, with light winds in the eastern
Gulf. The latest altimeter and surface data indicate sea heights
ranging from 1 to 4 ft.

A high pressure ridge will prevail across the eastern Gulf of
Mexico through Sat, generally maintaining gentle to moderate winds
across most of the basin this week. Fresh southerly flow is
expected over the NW Gulf tonight into Tue as a low pressure
trough develops over northern Mexico and southern Texas. Fresh NE
to E winds will develop each evening offshore of the Yucatan
Peninsula, then diminish during the overnight hours. A cold front
may move across the western Gulf Sat and Sat night, with
increasing winds and seas expected behind the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section above for more details
about a gale warning off the coast of Colombia.

An upper-level trough extends across the NW Caribbean while mid-
level troughing extends across the central Caribbean. This is
supporting scattered showers across Puerto Rico, USVI, the Mona
Passage and into Hispaniola. Scattered thunderstorms are also
observed off the SW Hispaniola coast. Scattered showers are moving
quickly across the Leeward Islands while isolated showers are
noted in the Windward Islands. The latest scatterometer data
depicts gale force winds near the northern Colombian coast with
fresh to strong winds across the central Caribbean. Strong to near
gale force winds are observed in the Windward Passage. Gentle to
moderate trades are elsewhere across the basin. The latest
altimeter data depicts up to 9 ft in the south-central Caribbean
with 3 to 6 ft throughout the rest of the basin.

A high pressure ridge north of the area will maintain generally
fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean through
the week. Strong NE trades off the coast of Colombia will pulse to
gale force tonight. Fresh to strong NE winds will persist through
the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola tonight, then gradually
diminish through midweek. Short-period NE swell across the waters
east of the Leeward Islands will gradually subside through Tue
night. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse at night in the
Gulf of Honduras Tue night through Sat night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Surface ridging dominates the subtropical Atlantic waters. A
surface trough is noted in the central Atlantic from 22N57W to
21N53W with no significant precipitation associated with it.
Another trough is in the western Atlantic from 28N76W to 22N76W
and also does not have significant precipitation associated with
it. A cold front is beginning to sink down across the central
Atlantic, entering the waters near 31N48W and stretches westward
to 29N54W to 31N63W. Some showers are along this boundary.

A high pressure ridge will persist across the northern waters for
the next several days. Fresh to strong SW winds will build seas
offshore of Florida Wed into Wed night, ahead of a cold front that
is expected to move across the northern waters late Wed night
through Fri while weakening. Associated northerly swell will
propagate across the northern and central waters Thu night through
Fri night. High pressure will rebuild over the northern waters
Fri night through Sat night.

$$
AReinhart
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