[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231800
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Mar 23 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: Scatterometer data from 23/1400 UTC
showed fresh to strong winds near the coast of Colombia, south of
12N between 73W-74W. The winds have diminished as expected during
the daytime hours, however, winds will pulse to gale force again
tonight into early Tue as strong high pressure ridge dominated the
subtropical western Atlantic. Significant wave heights are likely
to peak around 12 ft within the gales near the coast of Colombia
during the overnight hours.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N12W to 01N20W to 00N28W. The ITCZ continues from 00N28W to
04S37W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection extends
from the Equator to 10N between the coast of Africa to 30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A deep-layer ridge dominates the Gulf of Mexico this morning, with
1022 mb surface high pressure analyzed near the Florida Big Bend.a
surface trough is very well seen in the latest observations east
of high pressure centered extending from 28N82W to 25N83W. To the
south, surface trough has moved off the Yucatan Peninsula into
the Bay of Campeche. Recent scatterometer data showed gentle to
moderate return flow persists across the eastern Gulf with 4-6 ft
seas.

High pressure ridge will generally prevail across E Gulf of Mexico
through Fri night. This will help support generally quiescent
winds and seas through at least Fri night across most of the Gulf.
Fresh to strong NE to E winds will develop this evening offshore
of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight, then diminish on Tue. A cold
front may approach the Texas coast late Fri night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section above for more details
about a gale warning off the coast of Colombia.

An upper and mid-level trough axis extends across the eastern
Caribbean, with scattered showers and thunderstorms noted in
radar and satellite imagery downstream of the trough from 15N
to 19N across Hispaniola, the Mona Passage, Puerto Rico, USVI,
the Lesser Antilles and the NE Caribbean offshore waters. ASCAT
data revealed a large area of fresh to strong winds north of 15N
across the Mona Passage and the Anegada Passage, and in the SW
Caribbean south of 16N to 10N fresh to strong are noted. Fairly
benign marine conditions prevail across the NW Caribbean under the
influence of deep-layer ridging.

The Bermuda High will maintain generally fresh to strong trades
over S-central Caribbean through the week. NE trades off the coast
of Colombia will pulse to gale force tonight. Fresh to strong NE
winds will continue through the Windward Passage and south of
Hispaniola through tonight, then diminish slightly through
midweek. Short-period NE swell across the waters east of the
Leeward Islands will subside gradually by Tue night. Fresh to
locally strong winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of Honduras
Tue night through Fri night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A ridge extends across the western Atlantic from 1028 mb high
pressure centered near 28N62W. A mid to upper-level low pressure
system noted in GOES-16 water vapor imagery over the central
Atlantic is supporting a couple of weak troughs and a surface low.
The trough is analyzed near 29N53W and 22N50W and a 1020 mb low is
near 26N48W with a trough that extends from 31N47W to 22N45W. No
significant marine conditions are occurring with either system.
Farther east, a low pressure system has moved inland with a
weakening cold front extending westward from 20N16W to 30N35W.
Strong northerly winds behind 23N are seen in the latest ASCAT.
Scattered weak convection is noted along the boundary and near the
Canary Islands.

The Bermuda High will persist across NW waters for the next few
days. Fresh to strong SW winds will develop east of Florida Wed,
ahead of a cold front that is expected to move across the N waters
late Wed night through Fri while weakening. The Bermuda High will
then rebuild over the N waters Fri night.

$$
Torres
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