[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231019
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
619 AM EDT Mon Mar 23 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: Scatterometer data from 23/0300 UTC
confirmed marginal gale force winds near the coast of Colombia,
south of 12N between 74W and 75W. These winds are expected to
diminish later this morning, then pulse to gale force again
tonight into early Tue morning as a strong high pressure ridge
dominates the subtropical western Atlantic. Significant wave
heights likely peak around 12 ft within the gales near the coast
of Colombia this morning.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N12W to 01S28W. The ITCZ continues from 01S28W to 04S34W.
Numerous moderate to strong convection is occurring from 00N to
08N between 05W and 28W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A deep-layer ridge dominates the Gulf of Mexico this morning, with
1023 mb surface high pressure analyzed near 29N85W. A surface
trough has moved off the Yucatan Peninsula into the SW Gulf.
Overnight scatterometer data showed fresh NE to E winds west of
the trough axis. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate return flow
persists across the western Gulf with 2-4 ft seas.

High pressure will generally prevail across the eastern Gulf of
Mexico through Fri night. The gradient between this high and a low
pressure trough expected to develop over south Texas will support
fresh southerly winds over the NW Gulf tonight into Tue. Fresh NE
to E winds will develop each evening offshore of the Yucatan
Peninsula through Fri, then diminish during the overnight and
early morning hours. A cold front may approach the Texas coast
late Fri night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section above for more details
about a gale warning off the coast of Colombia.

A mid to upper-level trough axis extends across the eastern
Caribbean this morning, with scattered showers and thunderstorms
noted in radar imagery downstream of the trough over Puerto Rico,
USVI, and the NE Caribbean offshore waters. Overnight scatterometer
data revealed a large area of fresh to strong winds across the
south-central Caribbean. Altimeter data from 23/0600 UTC showed
7-10 ft seas in this region. Fresh to strong winds are also
occurring through the Windward and Mona passages, as well as south
of Hispaniola. Fairly benign marine conditions prevail across the
NW Caribbean under the influence of deep-layer ridging.

A high pressure ridge across the western Atlantic will maintain
fresh to strong winds over the south-central Caribbean through the
week. Gale force winds off the coast of Colombia early this
morning will diminish today, then pulse to gale force again
tonight. Fresh to strong winds will continue through the Windward
Passage and south of Hispaniola through tonight, then diminish
slightly through midweek. Short-period NE swell across the waters
east of the Leeward Islands will subside Tue into Tue night. Fresh
to locally strong winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of Honduras
Tue night through Fri night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A ridge extends across the western Atlantic from 1026 mb high
pressure centered near 30N66W. A stationary front is located
across the far NW waters from 32N77W to near Jacksonville,
Florida. Elsewhere, a mid to upper-level low pressure system noted
in GOES-16 water vapor imagery over the central Atlantic is
supporting a couple of weak surface lows analyzed near 27N53W and
26N47W. No significant marine conditions are occurring with either
system, and earlier convection associated with the second system
has dissipated. Farther east, an occluded low pressure system is
nearing the coast of southern Morocco, with its associated cold
front extending from Western Sahara across the eastern Atlantic to
23N25W to 30N34W. Strong northerly winds and 10-16 ft seas are
located in the western semicircle of the low. Scattered weak
convection is noted near the Canary Islands.

The stationary front off the coast of northern Florida will lift
northward later this morning. A high pressure ridge will persist
across the northern waters west of 60W for the next several days.
Fresh to strong SW flow will develop over the offshore waters
north of 29N Wed, ahead of a cold front that is expected to move
across the western Atlantic late Wed night through Fri while
weakening. High pressure will build over the western Atlantic
again by Fri night.

$$
B Reinhart
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net