[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230548
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
148 AM EDT Mon Mar 23 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: Gale force winds are ongoing north of
Colombia from 11N-12N between 74W-76W. These winds will continue
through 23/1200 UTC and pulse once again Monday night, 24/0300 UTC
and end by early Tuesday morning. Seas will build to 10 ft.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N11W
to 02N17W to 00N25W. A trough is along the monsoon trough from
06N18W to 01S17W. The ITCZ stretches from 00N25W to 03S33W.
Numerous strong convection is along the monsoon trough from 00N-
07N between 08W- 26W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Mid-level ridging is centered over the Gulf of Mexico and is
providing dry air subsidence. A 1023 mb surface high pressure is
in the eastern Gulf near 29N84W. A trough is noted in the Bay of
Campeche from 23N96W to 19N94W. The latest scatterometer data
depicts fresh easterly winds north of the Yucatan. Gentle to
moderate southeasterly winds are noted in the western Gulf with 2
to 4 ft seas. Light winds are in the eastern Gulf with 1 to 3 ft
seas.

High pressure will generally prevail across the eastern Gulf of
Mexico through Fri. The gradient between this high and a low
pressure trough expected to develop over south Texas will support
fresh southerly winds over the NW Gulf Mon night into Tue. Fresh
NE to E winds will develop each evening offshore of the Yucatan
Peninsula through Fri, then diminish during the overnight and
early morning hours. A cold front may approach the Texas coast
late Fri night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section above for more details
about a gale warning off the coast of Colombia.

A closed mid-level low centered near 15N71W is supporting
scattered moderate convection across Puerto Rico and the USVI
from 16N-19N between 65W-70W. Scattered showers are also moving
across the Lesser Antilles. A trough is analyzed in the NW
Caribbean from 21N80W to 15N80W. Showers are near this feature.
The latest scatterometer data depicts gale-force winds north of
Colombia with fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean.
Strong winds are also observed in the Windward Passage. Fresh
trades surround Puerto Rico and the USVI, including the Mona
Passage. Gentle to moderate trades are elsewhere across the basin.
Seas are up to 9 ft near Colombia, with 3 to 6 ft elsewhere.

A high pressure ridge across the western Atlantic will maintain
fresh to strong winds over the south-central Caribbean through the
week. Winds will pulse to gale force tonight and Mon night off
the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong winds will continue through
the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola through Mon night,
then diminish slightly through midweek. Short-period NE swell
across the waters east of the Leeward Islands will subside Tue
into Tue night. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse at night
in the Gulf of Honduras Tue night through Fri night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A mid to upper level low is centered near 26N43W in the central
Atlantic. At the surface, a 1022 mb low is near 27N52W with a
trough along the low from 31N52W to 23N51W. Another trough is
analyzed from 27N47W to 21N48W to 16N50W. Scattered moderate
convection is associated with the second trough from 28N-23N
between 41W- 46W. Farther east, a cold front continues to sink
southward along the Western Saharan coast and eastern Atlantic. It
enters the waters near 30N12W to 24N21W to 31N34W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted across the Canary Islands with
showers along the rest of the boundary. The latest scatterometer
data shows strong northerly winds behind this cold front with seas
up to 15 ft.

A cold front will stall just N of the area and W of 50W tonight,
before lifting N as a warm front Mon. High pressure ridging will
continue across the northern waters for the next several days.
Fresh to strong southwest flow will develop over the northern SW
N Atlc waters Wed and Wed night, ahead of another cold front that
may move across the northern waters Thu and Thu night.

$$
AReinhart
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