[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211806
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
206 PM EDT Sat Mar 21 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Strong high pressure in the SW N Atlc extending into the northern
Caribbean will tighten the pressure gradient in the south-central
basin and support gale force winds along the coast of Colombia
beginning Sun evening and continuing through late Mon morning.
For further details see the National Hurricane Center High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for specific
marine details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The ITCZ extends from 06N12W to 03N20W to 03N25W to 00N30W to
00N40W to 01S44W. Scattered moderate convection and isolated tstms
are from 01N to 07N between 18W and 30W, and from 05S to 05N
between 30W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the SE CONUS to the Florida Panhandle to
29N88W where it stalls and continues along 27N95W to Brownsville,
Texas. Scattered showers are behind the front along the Texas
coastal and adjacent waters. Patchy fog is being reported within
60 nm ahead of the stationary front. A surface trough prevails in
the SW Gulf extending from 23N93W to the western Bay of Campeche.
There is no shower activity associated with this trough.

The front will transition to a warm front tonight and lift back
to the north and inland through Sun evening. Fresh northeast winds
behind the front will become light southerly winds Sun. Strong
northeast to east winds will develop each evening north and along
the west side of the Yucatan Peninsula and diminish in the
mornings as a thermal trough moves offshore the Peninsula and to
the Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, Atlantic high pressure extending
westward across the area will change little through Wed night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Strong high pressure in the SW N Atlc extends southward across the
Caribbean supporting mainly moderate to fresh winds across the
basin. A surface trough extends from the Bahamas to Hispaniola
supporting isolated showers in the island. Another surface trough
is over the eastern Caribbean S of 18N65W. Low level precipitable
water imagery show shallow tropical moisture across the eastern
and central basin, which along a deep layered trough support
isolated showers and tstms in the vicinity of the trough, and
Jamaica and Nicaragua adjancent waters.

The high pressure over the western Atlantic and northern Caribbean
Sea will support fresh to strong winds over the south-central
Caribbean through Mon night before diminishing in coverage through
Wed night. Winds are expected to reach gale along the coast of
Colombia at night beginning Sun and through Wed. Fresh to strong
winds will continue through the Windward Passage through late Sun
night and south of Hispaniola through Tue afternoon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Surface high pressure dominates the SW N Atlc and the eastern Atlc
waters supporting fair weather conditions. A weakness in the ridge
is analyzed as a surface trough extending across the Bahamas
supporting isolated showers in that region. Over the north-central
Atlc, another surface trough extends from a 1019 mb low centered
near 30N47W to 26N46W. A third surface trough is ahead of the low
extending from 25N43W to 19N52W. Isolated showers associated with
this trough are N of 24N between 40W and 48W.

The high pressure ridge extending from Bermuda to Florida will
maintain fresh to strong winds and high seas south of 24N and east
of 75W through tonight. Seas in this area will subside through
Sun. A weak cold front will move southward from the Mid-Atlantic
coast to off the southeastern U.S. coast on Sun and become
stationary east of northern Florida. It will then lift back to the
north as a warm front on Mon. A cold front may approach the far
northwest part of the area Tue. Fresh to strong southwest winds
ahead of this front will continue through Wed night. Otherwise,
the high pressure ridge will shift southward to near 26N by Wed.

$$
Ramos
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