[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 212344
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
651 PM EDT Sat Mar 21 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Strong high pressure over the SW N Atlc ridging S over the
northern Caribbean will tighten the pressure gradient over the
south central basin and support gale force winds along the coast
of Colombia from Sun evening through late Mon morning. Winds over
the S central Caribbean will lessen Tue through Thu as low
pres moving NE from near Cape Hatteras weakens the ridge N of the
Caribbean. For further details see the National Hurricane Center
High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
for specific marine details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the border of Sierra Leone and
Liberia near 07N11W to 04N18W. The ITCZ continues from 04N18W to
01S31W to the coast of Brazil near 03S43W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is present from 03N to 06N between 10W
and 22W, and from 00N to 03N between 31W and 38W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A nearly stationary front crosses the far NW Gulf from just E of
Pensacola Florida to near Brownsville, Texas. Extensive
stratiform cloudiness and patchy light rain are observed along
and N of this boundary. A surface trough extends over the SW
Gulf from 18N94.5W to 22N95.5W to 25N94W. Only shallow
cloudiness is associated with this trough and no significant
shower coverage is seen.

The front will transition to a warm front tonight and lift back
N and inland through Sun evening. Fresh NE winds N of the front
will become light S winds Sun. Strong NE to E winds
will develop each evening along the western and northern sides
of the Yucatan Peninsula as a thermal trough moves NW from the
Yucatan Peninsula over the Bay of Campeche. Winds associated
with these troughs will weaken overnight as the troughs
dissipate. Otherwise, Atlc high pressure will continue to ridge
W along the northern Gulf coast through Wed night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section regarding gale force
winds expected along the northern coast of Colombia Sun
night. Otherwise, strong high pressure ridging S over the
Caribbean is generally supporting fresh to strong winds over the
central Caribbean and moderate to fresh winds over the remainder
of the basin. Winds over the basin will lessen Tue through Thu
as low pres moving NE from near Cape Hatteras weakens the ridge
N of the Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds will continue through
the Windward Passage through late Sun night and south of
Hispaniola through Tue afternoon. Fresh to strong winds may pulse
over the Gulf of Honduras at night, Tue night through Thu night.

A weak surface trough extending N from eastern Cuba near
20N76W to E of the Bahamas near 26N75W is only generating
shallow convection and isolated showers.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface high pressure ridge extending SW from just N
of the Azores to near Florida is broken by 1018 mb low
pres centered near 30N48W and a surface trough
extending from the low to 22N45W. Trade winds over the
tropical N Atlc S of the ridge are moderate to locally fresh.

A high pressure ridge extending from Bermuda to Florida will
maintain fresh to strong winds and high seas S of 29N tonight.
Fresh NE swells across this same area and just to the N will
also gradually subside tonight. A weak cold front will move
southward from the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast to off the SE U.S.
coast on Sun, then stall E of northern Florida by Sun night,
lifting back NW on Mon. It will then lift back N as a warm
front by early Mon. Another cold front could approach the NW
portion Wed night, slowly shifting E-SE as it weakens through
Thu night.


$$
CAM
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