[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211118
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
718 AM EDT Sat Mar 21 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N12W to 04N19W. The ITCZ continues from 04N19W to 04N21W, 04N23W
02N30W, to 02N40W, crossing the Equator along 42W, to the coastal
plains of Brazil near 02S43W. Precipitation: numerous strong
within 240 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 44W and 46W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 120 nm to the
north of the monsoon trough/ITCZ between 17W and 30W, and within
150 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 36W and 43W. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 04N southward
from 46W westward. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from the monsoon
trough/ITCZ southward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through SE Louisiana, to the border of Texas
and Mexico near 26N97W, at the southernmost part of Texas and
northeastern corner of Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate
to the northwest of the line that runs from the coast of Mexico
near 24N, to the NW corner of the Florida Panhandle.

The current slowly-moving cold front will stall today, and then
drift northward on Saturday night and Sunday. Strong NE to E winds
will develop each evening to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula,
and weaken overnight, as a thermal trough moves offshore.
A ridge along the northern Gulf coast will prevail, elsewhere,
through Wednesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough passes through 18N46W in the Atlantic Ocean.
The trough continues westward, into the NE Caribbean Sea near
18N66W just to the south of Puerto Rico, to an upper level
cyclonic circulation center that is near 14N82W about 100 nm to
the E of the northeastern sections of Nicaragua, and southward to
Costa Rica. Rainshowers are possible, in general, in broken low
level clouds, across the entire area. Rainshowers are in the
coastal waters of southern Haiti, and SE and S Jamaica, from 16N
to 19N between 73W and 78W.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that
ended at 21/0000 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are: 0.52 in
Guadeloupe, and 0.48 in Curacao.

A ridge to the north of the area will support fresh to strong
winds in the south central Caribbean Sea through Monday night. The
fastest wind speeds will be close to the coast of Colombia each
night. Fresh to strong winds will persist in the Windward
Passage, and to the south of Hispaniola, through Sunday morning.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through 32N46W, to 18N46W. The trough
continues westward, into the NE Caribbean Sea near 18N66W just to
the south of Puerto Rico, to an upper level cyclonic circulation
center that is near 14N82W about 100 nm to the E of the northeastern
sections of Honduras, and southward to Costa Rica. A 1015 mb low
pressure center is near 31N46W. A dissipating stationary front is
along 31N41W 27N43W 23N47W. A surface trough extends from the
1015 mb low pressure center to 28N46W and 26N50W. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 24N northward
between 39W and 45W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere in the
area that is bounded by the points from 05N52W at the coast of
French Guiana, to 13N57W 24N43W 26N75W, to the Windward Passage. A
surface trough is along 70W/71W from north central Hispaniola to
26N.

A dissipating cold front passes through the coastal sections of
the Western Sahara near 27N14W, to 25N23W, and 30N31W. Precipitation:
rainshowers are possible from 23N northward from 30W eastward.

A ridge, extending from Bermuda to Florida, will maintain fresh
to strong winds and high seas S of 25N through tonight. A weak
cold front, drifting SE from the coast of Georgia, will stall
east of northern Florida on Sunday, and then move northward as a
warm front on Monday.

$$
MT
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