[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210542
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
142 AM EDT Sat Mar 21 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...
The current forecast, starting at 21/0000 UTC, consists of NE
gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 9 feet,
from 11N to 12N between 74W and 76W, at 48 hours, starting on
Sunday night. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST:
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST:
MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, from the NWS
National Hurricane Center, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N12W to 03N18W. The ITCZ continues from 03N18W to 01N30W,
crossing the Equator along 36W, and curving to the coastal plains
of Brazil near 03S44W. Precipitation: Scattered to numerous strong
from 120 nm to 220 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 21W and
26W, and within 135 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 24W and
29W. Scattered to numerous strong also is from 02N southward
between 46W and 50W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is
elsewhere from 07N southward from South America eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through south central coastal Louisiana,
into the Deep South of Texas. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
the northwest of the line that runs from the coast of Mexico near
23N to the coast of Louisiana that is along 90W.

A slowly-moving cold front will reach the far NW Gulf of Mexico
tonight, and then move to the N of the Gulf of Mexico during this
weekend. A trough will develop in the Yucatan Peninsula each
evening, shift into the SW Gulf of Mexico each night, and then
dissipate by morning. Fresh to locally strong winds will accompany
the trough. A ridge along the northern Gulf coast will prevail
through the forecast period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough passes through 18N46W in the Atlantic Ocean.
The trough continues westward, into the NE Caribbean Sea near
18N66W just to the south of Puerto Rico, to an upper level
cyclonic circulation center that is near 16N82W about 100 nm to
the ENE of the eastern sections of Honduras, and southward to
Costa Rica. Rainshowers are possible, in general, in broken low
level clouds, across the entire area. Rainshowers are in the
coastal waters of southern Haiti and southern Jamaica.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that
ended at 21/0000 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are: 0.52 in
Guadeloupe, and 0.48 in Curacao.

A ridge, extending from Bermuda to Florida, will support fresh to
strong winds in the south central Caribbean Sea through Monday
night. The winds along the coast of Colombia will reach gale-force
to near gale-force each night through Wednesday night. Fresh to
strong winds will persist in the Windward Passage, and to the
south of Hispaniola, through Sunday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through 32N46W, to 18N46W. The trough
continues westward, into the NE Caribbean Sea near 18N66W just to
the south of Puerto Rico, to an upper level cyclonic circulation
center that is near 16N82W about 100 nm to the ENE of the eastern
sections of Honduras, and southward to Costa Rica. A 1017 mb low
pressure center is near 32N45W. A dissipating stationary front is
along 32N42W 29N42W 26N45W. A weakening surface trough continues
from 26N45W, to 20N51W, to 13N57W. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong from 25N northward between 38W and
44W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere in the area that is
bounded by the points from 06N53W at the coast of French Guiana,
to 13N56W 24N44W 23N68W and 20N70W.

A dissipating cold front passes through the coastal sections of
Morocco near 31N10W, to the southern coastal waters of the Canary
Islands, to 27N20W, and curving to 28N25W and 30N28W.
Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 24N northward from
30W eastward.

A strong ridge, that extends from Bermuda to Florida, will
maintain strong winds and elevated seas S of 25N through Saturday
night. A weak cold front, drifting SE from the coast of Georgia,
will stall east of northern Florida near 30N on Sunday and Sunday
night, then move northward as a warm front on Monday.

$$
MT
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