[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 202258
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
658 PM EDT Fri Mar 20 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N12W to 04N16W. The ITCZ continues from 04N16W to 00N30W to
02S44W. Scattered moderate convection isolated strong convection
is seen north of the ITCZ from 01N-04N between 19W-33W, and near
the coast of Brazil from 03S-02N between 39W-49W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge axis extends from Bermuda to the north-central
Gulf of Mexico. Mid to upper-level ridging also prevails over
most of the Gulf. A cold front over SE Texas is moving toward the
Gulf. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring just ahead
of and along with the front and are remaining just inland at this
time. Some of these showers will likely move into the NW Gulf coast
this evening. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh SE winds over the
south-central Gulf of Mexico, south of 26N, and fresh E winds in
the Florida Straits. Gentle to moderate wind speeds are elsewhere.

The slow moving cold front will just reach the far NW Gulf tonight,
then stall and weaken this weekend. A trough will develop over
the Yucatan Peninsula each evening, shift W over the SW Gulf each
night, then dissipate by morning. Fresh to locally strong winds
will accompany the trough. Otherwise, a ridge along the northern
Gulf coast will prevail through the forecast period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mid- to upper-level troughing extends across the north-central
Caribbean. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are noted near
Hispaniola and Jamaica. Scattered cumulus clouds are streaming
across the Lesser Antilles and central Caribbean along the
easterly trades. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are noted over the
NE Caribbean north of 15N and east of 75W, including the Mona and
Windward Passages. Similar winds are south of Cuba. Strong winds
are offshore Colombia. Moderate to fresh trades prevail across the
remainder of the basin.

The ridge extending from Bermuda to Florida will support fresh to
strong winds over the south-central Caribbean through Mon night.
Winds along the coast of Colombia will reach gale to near gale
force each night through Wed night. Fresh to strong winds will
persist over the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola through
Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge prevails across the west Atlantic west of 60W. In
the west Atlantic west of 50W, fresh to strong winds are from
20N-26N, while gentle to moderate wind speeds are north of 26N. A
1014 mb low is near 32N44W. An occluded front curves the 1014 mb
low and connects to a slow moving front near 31N41W. The front
stalls from 31N41W to 26N43W with the tail end gradually weakening.
A surface trough extends south of the front from 22N49W to 14N55W.
Scattered convection is along and within 90 nm east of the cold
front, mainly north of 24N. Isolated showers are elsewhere along
the boundary and surface trough. Fresh to strong N winds are north
of 31N and west of 45W to 49W. Fresh winds continue elsewhere
across the western Atlantic west of 49W. ASCAT data indicates an
area of fresh to strong winds from 20N-24N between 60W-65W. A line
of scattered showers and tstorms are developing to the west from
north of PR near 18N to 26n between 67W-69W. In the E Atlantic, a
weakening cold front extends from 29N12W to 29N25W. Moderate to
fresh N winds are N of the front, mainly east of 24W.

The strong high pressure ridge extending from near Bermuda to
Florida will maintain strong winds and elevated seas S of 25N
through Sat night. A weak cold front drifting SE from the coast of
Georgia will stall east of northern Florida near 30N Sun and Sun
night, then lift north as a warm front Mon.

$$
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
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