[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201650
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1250 PM EDT Fri Mar 20 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N12W to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W to 01N30W to
00N38W to 02S43W. Scattered moderate convection is within 150 nm N
and within 30 nm S of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge axis extends from Bermuda to the north-central
Gulf of Mexico. Mid- to upper-level ridging also prevails over
most of the Gulf. A cold front over SE Texas is moving toward the
Gulf. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring just ahead
of and along with the front and are remaining just inland at this
time. Some of these showers will likely move into the NW Gulf this
evening. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh SE winds over the
south-central Gulf of Mexico, south of 26N, and fresh E winds in
the Florida Straits. Gentle to moderate wind speeds are elsewhere.

The slow-moving cold front will move offshore Texas tonight, then
stall and weaken over the N Gulf during this weekend. A trough
will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each evening, shift
westward into the SW Gulf each night, and dissipate over the SW
Gulf each morning. Fresh to locally strong winds will accompany
this trough. Elsewhere in the Gulf, a ridge will prevail through
the forecast period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mid- to upper-level troughing extends across the north-central
Caribbean. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are noted from
16N-19N between 75W-84W, including waters near Jamaica. Isolated
to scattered showers are also seen extending from over Hispaniola
to the waters south of Puerto Rico to near Guadeloupe. Fresh to
strong NE to E winds are noted over the NE Caribbean north of 15N
and east of 75W, including the Mona and Windward Passages. Similar
winds are south of Cuba. Strong winds are offshore Colombia.
Moderate to fresh trades prevail across the remainder of the
basin.

A ridge north of the area will support fresh to strong winds in
the south-central Caribbean through Mon night. Strongest winds
will be near the coast of Colombia each night. Fresh to strong
winds will persist over the Windward Passage and south of
Hispaniola through Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge prevails across the west Atlantic west of 60W. In
the west Atlantic west of 65W, fresh to strong winds are from
20N-26N, while gentle to moderate wind speeds are north of 26N. A
1016 mb low is near 33N43W. A slow-moving cold front associated
with this low is from 32N42W to 23N48W. A surface trough extends
south of the front from 23N48W to 13N56W. Scattered moderate
convection is along and within 90 nm east of the cold front,
mainly north of 24N. Isolated showers are elsewhere along the
front and surface trough. Fresh to strong NE winds are within 600
nm NW of the front and trough. In the E Atlantic, a cold front
extends from 32N13W to 29N20W to 32N26W. Fresh to strong N winds
are N of the front, mainly east of 21W.

The 1016 mb low near 33N43W is forecast to move slowly SW to near
29N47W Sat morning. In the west Atlantic, fresh to strong winds
will continue south of 25N through tonight. A weak cold front
drifting SE from the coast of Georgia this weekend will stall east
of northern Florida Mon night, then lift north as a warm front on
Tue.

$$
Hagen
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