[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191641
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1241 PM EDT Thu Mar 19 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1620 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...

Gale force NE to E winds are expected again tonight near the coast
of Colombia. Seas of 9 to 11 ft are forecast south of 12N between
74W-76W. Winds will diminish below gale force by 1200 UTC Friday
morning. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 07N12W
to 02N19W. The ITCZ continues from 02N19W to 03S43W. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is from 01S-03N between 43W-50W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-06N between 06W-12W.
Isolated moderate convection is along and within 150 nm N of the
ITCZ between 30W-40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Mid- to upper-level ridging prevails over the Gulf of Mexico,
leading to mostly fair weather across the basin. Patchy fog has
been occurring today near the coasts of Louisiana and Texas.
Fresh SE winds prevail over much of the Gulf of Mexico.

Relatively low pressure over northern Mexico and a strengthening
W Atlantic ridge will support fresh to locally strong return flow,
mainly across the western Gulf, through Fri. A slow-moving cold
front will reach the NW Gulf late Fri, then stall and weaken over
the northern Gulf Sat through Sun. Strong NE to E winds will
develop each evening N of the Yucatan Peninsula, then weaken
overnight as the associated trough moves offshore.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Special Features section for more information on the Gale
Warning currently in effect for the south-central Caribbean.

Relatively dry air covers the basin, despite the presence of
upper-level troughing over the western Caribbean. Isolated to
scattered showers are streaming across the NE and north-central
Caribbean, mostly north of 14N and east of 77W. The latest ASCAT
pass shows strong to near gale force trades in the south-central
Caribbean near the coast of Colombia. Strong NE winds are in the
Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola.

A ridge north of the area will support fresh to strong winds in
the south-central Caribbean through Mon night. Strongest winds
will be near the coast of Colombia each night. Fresh to strong
winds will persist over the Windward Passage and south of
Hispaniola through Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends across the central Atlantic from 31N45W
to 28N45W to 21N51W. A surface trough continues from 21N51W to
11N52W. Scattered moderate convection is along and within 120 nm E
of the front, mainly N of 27N. Strong S winds are within 120 nm E
of the front, north of 28N. Isolated to scattered showers are
elsewhere along and within 120 E of the front and surface trough.
Another surface trough is located to the west of the stationary
front and extends from 29N47W to 24N55W. The latest ASCAT pass
shows fresh to strong N to NE winds on the NW side of this
surface trough. An east-west surface ridge axis prevails along 31N
in the western Atlantic. Surface ridging also prevails over the
east Atlantic.

Strengthening high pressure over the west-central Atlantic will
increase winds and seas S of 25N, west of 60W through Fri night.
A weak cold front drifting SE from the coast of Georgia this
weekend will stall east of northern Florida by Mon night.

$$
Hagen
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