[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 192346
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
746 PM EDT Thu Mar 19 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2320 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...

Gale force NE to E winds are expected again tonight near the coast
of Colombia. Seas of 9 to 11 ft are forecast south of 12N between
74W-76W. Winds will diminish below gale force by 1200 UTC Friday
morning. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N13W to 02N19W. The ITCZ continues from 02N19W to 03S39W.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 01S-03N between
43W-50W. Scattered showers are seen within 120 nm of the monsoon
trough and ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Mid- to upper-level ridging prevails over the Gulf of Mexico,
leading to mostly fair weather across the basin. Patchy fog is
reported in the NW Gulf. Fresh to strong SE winds prevail over the
west-central Gulf, with moderate to fresh SE winds across the
central and western Gulf. Light to gentle SE winds are along the
coast. Seas are 3 to 6 ft.

Low pressure over northern Mexico and a strong W Atlantic ridge
will support fresh to locally strong return flow, mainly across
the western Gulf, through Fri. A slow-moving cold front will just
reach the NW Gulf late Fri, then stall and weaken Sat and Sun.
Strong NE to E winds will develop each evening N and W of the
Yucatan Peninsula, then weaken overnight as a thermal trough moves
offshore.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Special Features section for more information on the Gale
Warning currently in effect for the south-central Caribbean.

Mid-level troughing extends across the northern Caribbean.
Isolated thunderstorms are noted across Hispaniola with showers
moving across the Lesser Antilles westward to the Mona Passage.
Strong easterly winds are north of Colombia and south of
Hispaniola, with fresh to strong winds across the central
Caribbean. Strong winds are also noted in the Windward Passage.
Moderate to fresh trades are seen across the rest of the basin.
Seas are up to 9 ft north of Colombia, with 3 to 7 ft elsewhere.

A ridge extending from near Bermuda to Florida will support fresh
to strong winds over the south-central Caribbean through Tue
night. Strongest winds will be near the coast of Colombia each
night. Fresh to strong winds will persist over the Windward
Passage and south of Hispaniola through Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A slow moving cold front extends across the central Atlantic from
31N44W to 26N46W to 21N51W. A trough extends south of this front
from 21N51W to 11N54W. Showers are moving along and within 100 nm
east of the front. Seas are 9 to 12 ft near this front. Another
trough is west of the front from 31N45W to 28N48W with no
significant weather associated with it. Surface ridging extends
across the western and eastern Atlantic.

A strong high pres ridge extending from Bermuda to Florida will
maintain winds and seas S of 25N through Fri night. A weak cold
front drifting SE from the coast of Georgia this weekend will
stall near 30N by Mon night, then lift N as a warm front.

$$
AReinhart
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