[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 182352
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
752 PM EDT Wed Mar 18 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2320 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...

Gale force NE to E winds are expected tonight and again on
Thursday night near the coast of Colombia. Seas up to 10 ft are
forecast in the area. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Guinea near 10N14W to 07N16W to
01N23W. The ITCZ extends from 01N23W to the coast of Brazil near
03S41W. An area of numerous strong convection is seen south of the
monsoon trough from 00N-05N between 10W-19W. Scattered showers are
within 100 nm of the ITCZ between 20W-34W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak mid- to upper-level ridging over the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico is leading to mostly fair weather across the basin. Patchy
fog continues over the NW Gulf, N of 27N and W of 88W. Fresh
winds are in the eastern Bay of Campeche. The remainder of the
basin is experiencing gentle to moderate SE winds. Seas are 2 to 6
ft.

A ridge over the SE United States will maintain moderate SE
return flow over Gulf through Thu night. Low pressure forming over
northern Mexico and a strengthening W Atlantic ridge will support
fresh to strong return flow across most of the basin Fri. A cold
front will slow down and stall over the NW Gulf Sat through Sun,
then dissipate by Mon. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will
develop each evening N and W of the Yucatan Peninsula, then weaken
overnight as a thermal trough heads NW from the Peninsula.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Special Features section for more information on the gale
event.

A surface trough extends from the Mona Passage to north of Aruba,
from 18N68W to 13N70W. Scattered showers are moving across Puerto
Rico and into eastern Hispaniola. Isolated showers are also noted
over the Lesser Antilles. Fresh to strong east-northeast winds
are noted across the central Caribbean in addition to the NW
Caribbean, particularly off the coast of Cuba. Seas are up to 9
ft north of Colombia and 8 ft across the central Caribbean. Seas
are generally 3 to 6 ft elsewhere.

Fresh to strong winds will prevail over the south- central
Caribbean through this weekend. Gale to near gale force winds will
affect the coast of Colombia through Mon night as high pressure
ridge remains in place over the western Atlc. A surface trough
extending from the Mona Passage to near 13N70W will shift W over
the central Caribbean and dissipate by Thu night. Strong winds
will persist over the Windward Passage and S of Hispaniola through
Sun night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends southward from 31N45W to 27N48W and stalls
from that point to 22N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
east of the cold front from 25N-31N between 42W-46W. An E-W trough
extends from 30N47W to 27N55W to 31N64W. Fresh to strong northerly
winds are behind the front and trough with moderate to fresh
southeasterly winds ahead of the cold front. Light showers are
noted along this trough. To the south of this system, another
trough extends from 22N50W to 10N52W with showers near this
feature.

Strengthening high pressure over the NW Atlantic will increase
winds and seas S of 27N tonight through Fri night. A cold front
will slowly move SE from the coasts of Georgia and northern
Florida Sun to stall over the NW waters near 29N by Mon night.

$$
AReinhart
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