[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181205 AAA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Wed Mar 18 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...

Gale force NE to E winds are expected Thursday night near the
coast of Colombia. Seas up to 10 ft are forecast in the area.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for
further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal Africa near 12N16W to
04N25W. ITCZ extends from 04N25W to the coast of Brazil near
03S43W. Scattered showers are noted within 75 nm on either sides
of the boundaries.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging dominates the basin supporting gentle to
moderate anticyclonic winds across most of the basin.
Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh easterly winds near
the Yucatan Peninsula south of 23N between 87W-91W. Patchy fog
continues to be reported in the northwest Gulf mainly north of 26N
and west of 89W. Seas across the basin are ranging between 1 to 3
ft.

High pressure ridge across the northern Gulf will maintain
moderate SE return flow and patchy fog across the NW Gulf today.
Low pressure forming over northern Mexico and a strengthening W
Atlc ridge will support fresh return flow across most of the basin
later this week. A slow-moving cold front will reach the NW Gulf
Fri night, then stall and weaken over the northern Gulf Sat
through Sun. Strong NE to E winds will develop each evening N of
the Yucatan Peninsula, then weaken overnight as the associated
trough moves offshore.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends over the northeast Caribbean from 19N65W
to 15N66W. Scattered showers are noted with this trough, moving
westward into Puerto Rico. The latest scatterometer data depicts
fresh to strong winds north of Colombia and the central
Caribbean, including the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate
trades are noted across the remainder of the basin. Seas are
ranging between 3 to 6 ft.

Fresh to strong winds will prevail over the south-central
Caribbean through this weekend, with near-gale force winds
developing each night near the coast of Colombia. Gale force winds
are expected near the coast of Colombia by Thu night as high
pressure builds north of the area. The surface trough over the NE
Caribbean will shift westward and weaken today. Strong winds will
persist in the Windward Passage and S of Hispaniola through Sun.
Building high pressure over the NW Atlc will increase winds and
seas over the NE Caribbean and E of the Leeward Islands Thu night
into this weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends across the west Atlantic from 28N71W to
25N72W with no significant weather associated with it. Farther
east, a 1015 mb surface low is analyzed near 29N50W with a warm
front extending northeast to 31N48W. A cold front extends south
of the low to 25N51W, then becomes stationary to 23N55W. A pre
frontal trough extends from 27N47W to 24N49W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted with these features from 23N-31N between 44W-
50W. A surface trough extends from 19N51W to 10N53W. Moderate to
fresh northerly winds are behind the front and low. Seas are 7 to
12 ft in the central Atlantic near the frontal system.

The trough over the western waters will dissipate later today.
Strengthening high pressure over the NW Atlc will increase winds
and seas S of 27N tonight through Fri night. A cold front will
move off the southeast U.S. coast this weekend and stall over the
northern waters late Sun and Sun night.

$$

ERA/ABH
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