[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151055
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
655 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1040 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...

The current forecast, starting at 15/0600 UTC, consists of:
within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia ... NE-to-E winds 25 knots
to 30 knots, with frequent gusts to gale-force. Sea heights are
forecast to reach 9 feet. The gale-force wind conditions will slow
down to less than gale-force by late morning on Sunday. Gale-force
winds return to the forecast at 24 hours, at 42 hours, and again
at 48 hours, in the forecast period. Please read the latest HIGH
SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE
FORECAST: MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, from the NWS
National Hurricane Center, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N14W, curving to 09N18W and to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues
from 06N19W, to 05N22W and 04N26W. A surface trough is along
27W/28W from 05N southward. The ITCZ continues from 01N28W to the
Equator along 37W. Precipitation: scattered strong is from 03N to
06N between 10W and 12W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 03N southward from 50W westward. Isolated moderate
to locally strong is elsewhere from 07N southward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from a 1025 mb Atlantic Ocean high
pressure center that is near 29N78W, across Florida and into the
NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico, into the west central Gulf of
Mexico, and then southwestward to Mexico near 21N98W.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire Gulf of
Mexico. An upper level ridge is along 85W/86W.

A ridge will dominate the Gulf waters during the next several
days. The pressure gradient will tighten between the ridge and
lower pressures that are in Mexico, by Wednesday night, bringing
some increase in wind speeds and sea heights. Fresh-to-locally
strong NE to E winds will develop each evening near the northern
Yucatan Peninsula, and then weaken overnight as the associated
trough moves offshore. Patchy fog is expected in parts of the NW
Gulf of Mexico, especially during the overnight and early morning
hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 23N60W. An
upper level trough extends from the cyclonic circulation center,
southwestward, across the NE corner of the Caribbean Sea, into the
Caribbean Sea near 14N65W. Comparatively drier air in subsidence
is apparent in water vapor imagery, in the entire Caribbean Sea,
and in the Atlantic Ocean, in the area that runs from 13N to 20N
between 54W and 64W. A 1015 mb low pressure center is near
23N61W. A surface trough extends from the 1015 mb low pressure
center to 26N61W. Another part of the trough extends from the
1015 mb low pressure center to 21N61W and 18N63W. Precipitation:
rainshowers are possible from 72W eastward. 24-hour rainfall
totals that are listed for the period that ended at 15/0000 UTC,
according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are: 0.36 in Guadeloupe.

Rainshowers are possible also from 15N northward between 70W and
83W.

High pressure, to the north of the area, will support fresh-to-
strong NE-to-E winds in the south central Caribbean Sea for the
next several days. Strong winds, with frequent gusts to gale-
force, are expected during each night near the coast of Colombia.
Strong winds will pulse through the Windward Passage, and to the
south of Hispaniola, during each night through the middle of
week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 23N60W. An
upper level trough extends from the cyclonic circulation center,
southwestward, across the NE corner of the Caribbean Sea, into the
Caribbean Sea near 14N65W. Comparatively drier air in subsidence
is apparent in water vapor imagery, in the entire Caribbean Sea,
and in the Atlantic Ocean, in the area that runs from 13N to 20N
between 54W and 64W. A 1015 mb low pressure center is near
23N61W. A surface trough extends from the 1015 mb low pressure
center to 26N61W. Another part of the trough extends from the
1015 mb low pressure center to 21N61W and 18N63W. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 19N to 28N
within 330 nm of the center in the E semicircle, and within 90 nm
of the center in the W semicircle.

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from the Cabo Verde Islands northward from 27W eastward. An upper
level cyclonic circulation center is just to the north of the
Canary Islands.

Expect fresh to strong NE winds across the waters that are to the
N of Puerto Rico to about 22N, including in the Mona Passage, due
to the surface pressure gradient, that is between a SW N Atlantic
Ocean ridge and a low pressure system that is just to the E of
the area near 23N61W. The low pressure center is forecast to
weaken gradually, while moving SW to near 20N63W by Monday night.
A weak cold front will move across the north waters from today
through Monday night. Expect moderate to fresh winds and building
seas in the wake of the front. Strong high pressure will build to
the north of the area from Wednesday night through Thursday night.
Expect increasing wind speeds and sea heights across the forecast
region.

$$
MT
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net