[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150529
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
129 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0510 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of SW
Guinea near 09N13W, curving to 08N16W and to 04N19W. The ITCZ
continues from 04N19W, to 02N34W, crossing the Equator along
39W, to the coast of Brazil near 02S44W. Precipitation: scattered
moderate to strong from 01.5N to 03N between 04.5W and 06W, from
02.5N between 06W and 08W, from 03N northward between 08W and 11W,
and from 02N to 03N between 11W and 14W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from a 1025 mb NE Gulf of Mexico high
pressure center that is near 30N86W, into the west central Gulf
of Mexico, and then southwestward to Mexico near 19N97W.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire Gulf of
Mexico. An upper level ridge is along 85W/87W.

High pressure, extending from the western Atlantic Ocean into the
northern Gulf of Mexico, will maintain generally moderate-to-
occasionally fresh E to SE winds across the region through the
middle of next week. Fresh-to-locally strong NE to E winds will
develop each evening near the northern Yucatan Peninsula, and then
weaken overnight as the associated trough moves offshore. Patchy
fog is expected in parts of the NW Gulf of Mexico, especially
during the overnight and early morning hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 23N61W. An
upper level trough extends from the cyclonic circulation center,
southwestward, across the NE corner of the Caribbean Sea, into
the Caribbean Sea near 15N65W. Comparatively drier air in
subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, in the entire
Caribbean Sea, and in the Atlantic Ocean, in the area that is
bounded by the points from 11N62W to 20N53W to 20N66W, and
elsewhere from 20N southward between 60W and 66W. A 1015 mb low
pressure center is near 24N60W. A surface trough extends from the
1015 mb low pressure center to 26N59W and to 27N57W. Another part
of the trough extends from the 1015 mb low pressure center to
21N60W and 17N61W. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from
72W eastward. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the
period that ended at 15/0000 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are:
0.36 in Guadeloupe.

The gradient from high pressure north of the area
will support strong NE winds over the south-central Caribbean
for the next several days. Winds will pulse to near gale force
each night near the coast of Colombia. Strong winds will pulse
through the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola each night
through the middle of next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 23N61W. An
upper level trough extends from the cyclonic circulation center,
southwestward, across the NE corner of the Caribbean Sea, into
the Caribbean Sea near 15N65W. Comparatively drier air in
subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, in the entire
Caribbean Sea, and in the Atlantic Ocean, in the area that is
bounded by the points from 11N62W to 20N53W to 20N66W, and
elsewhere from 20N southward between 60W and 66W. A 1015 mb low
pressure center is near 24N60W. A surface trough extends from the
1015 mb low pressure center to 26N59W and to 27N57W. Another part
of the trough extends from the 1015 mb low pressure center to
21N60W and 17N61W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is within 260 nm of the center in the NE
semicircle.

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from the Cabo Verde Islands northward from 30W eastward. An upper
level cyclonic circulation center is just to the north of the
Canary Islands.

The current low pressure center and trough will weaken gradually.
The low pressure center will move southwestward, to 20N64W by
Monday. Expect increasing wind speeds and sea heights to the
waters to the east of 70W. A weak cold front will sag southward
into the far northern waters tonight, and move across the NE
part of the area from Sunday through Monday night. Expect
moderate to fresh winds and building seas following the front
through early next week. Strong high pressure will build north of
the area, from Wednesday night through Thursday, resulting in
increasing winds and seas across the region.

$$
MT
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