[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 142356
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
756 PM EDT Sat Mar 14 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

The Meteo-France outlook from 16/0000 UTC to 17/0000 UTC calls for
near gale winds over zones Agadir and Tarfaya, off the coast of
Morocco. Please refer to the Meteo-France high seas forecast
listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N13W
to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 00N40W to the coast
of Brazil near 02S44W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 03N-08N between 00W-06W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 03N-06N between 14W-19W. Scattered showers are
within 120 nm of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1026 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 30N77W. A
ridge axis extends W from the high along 30N to E Texas. 5-15 kt
SE return flow is over the Gulf of Mexico with weakest winds over
the NE Gulf and strongest winds over the SW Gulf. Fog is being
reported over the NW Gulf with visibility mostly 3-5 miles in the
offshore areas of Texas and Louisiana. Denser fog is over the
coastal areas. Mostly fair weather is over the remainder of the
Gulf. In the upper levels, an upper level ridge is over the Gulf
along 86W. Strong subsidence is over the S Gulf S of 26N.

High pressure extending from the western Atlantic into the
northern Gulf of Mexico will maintain generally moderate to
occasionally fresh E to SE winds across the region Sunday
through Wednesday. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will
develop each evening near the northern Yucatan Peninsula, then
weaken overnight as the associated trough moves offshore. Patchy
dense fog is expected over portions of the northern Gulf for the
next several days, especially during the overnight and early
morning hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-22 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean with strongest winds
along the coast of Colombia and weakest winds over the Windward
Islands. Scattered showers are over the Windward Islands, Puerto
Rico, central Hispaniola, Jamaica, E Honduras, E Nicaragua, Costa
Rica, and W Panama. In the upper levels, an upper level trough is
over the E Caribbean with its axis along 65W. Strong subsidence is
over the entire Caribbean.

The surface pressure gradient over the Caribbean will support
strong NE winds over the south-central Caribbean for the next
several days, with gales possible Mon night near the coast of
Colombia. Strong winds will pulse each night through the Windward
Passage and south of Hispaniola through the middle of next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A near gale warning is out for the coast of Morocco. See above.

A 1026 mb high is over the W Atlantic near 30N77W. Another 1026 mb
high is over the W Atlantic near 30N67W. A 1015 mb low is over the
central Atlantic N of the Leeward Islands near 24N59W. A surface
trough extends from 26N58W to the low to 19N61W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 23N-27N between 56W-61W. A 1029 mb
high is over the E Atlantic near 38N34W. An upper level low is
also centered near 24N60W enhancing convection. Another upper
level low is off the coast of Morocco near 35N12W producing
scattered showers as far S as the Canary Islands.

The surface low and trough N of the Leeward Islands will
gradually weaken while moving SW to near 20N63W by Mon, bringing
increasing winds and seas to the waters east of 70W. A high
pressure ridge over the W Atlantic will weaken tonight as a cold
front sags southward into the W Atlantic Sun through Mon. The
surface pressure gradient will support fresh winds east of the
Bahamas through the middle of next week.

$$
Formosa
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