[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141637
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1237 PM EDT Sat Mar 14 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1620 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 05N21W. The ITCZ continues from 05N21W to
02N32W to 01S43W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is from 01N-04N between 12W-31W. Isolated moderate convection is
from 01S-02N between 40W-50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from NE Florida into the central Gulf of
Mexico, anchored by a 1025 mb high east of Tallahassee near
31N84W. Mid- to upper-level anticyclonic flow prevails over the
basin, leading to subsidence and fair weather. The exception is in
the far NW Gulf close to the Texas coast, where scattered to
broken mid and upper level clouds are streaming from SW to NE.
Some patchy areas of dense fog are noted in a few spots near the
Louisiana and upper Texas coasts.

High pressure extending from the western Atlantic across the
region will maintain gentle to moderate E to SE winds across the
Gulf through the period. Southeast winds will increase to fresh
speeds over the NW Gulf Wed night. Patchy dense fog is expected in
some locations of the NW and N-central Gulf at night and in the
mornings through Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mid- to upper-level ridging covers the western half of the
Caribbean Sea, leading to dry air and subsidence west of 70W. An
upper-level trough axis extends from an upper-level low near
25N61W to the Virgin Islands to 15N69W. Little to no significant
shower activity is noted over the eastern Caribbean, as the
atmosphere is still fairly dry there. The latest ASCAT pass shows
moderate to locally fresh trades across the western and central
Caribbean, with strong NE winds near the coast of N Colombia.
Gentle trades are east of 70W.

Some showers and thunderstorms are possible this weekend in the
northern Leeward and Virgin Islands due to a sharp trough that is
currently over the Atlantic from 19N62W to 25N58W. Significant
shower activity is currently outside of the Caribbean basin, north
of 19N and east of 61.5W.

High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong
northeast winds near the coast of Colombia the next several days.
Winds across the central Caribbean will increase tonight, then
remain fresh to occasionally strong through Wed night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A sharp surface trough is located well to the north of the
northern Leeward Islands from 25N58W to 19N62W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 19N-28N between 54W-61W. An upper-
level low near 25N61W is helping to enhance convection. East
winds of 30 kt are from 25N-26N between 57W-59W. Strong E winds
are elsewhere from 24N-28N between 56W-60W. A broad surface low
is likely to form along the trough later today near 24N60W. Winds
with this system are expected to remain near gale force through
Sunday morning before it begins to weaken. As the low weakens, it
will move SW towards the NE Caribbean early next week with limited
shower activity.

A surface ridge extends roughly along 30N from the central
Atlantic to northern Florida, anchored by a 1025 mb high near
30N74W. The ridge will weaken tonight as a cold front sags
southward, south of 30N between 60W-81W, Sun and Sun night. The
front will then continue southward to the waters east of the
Bahamas Mon through Tue night while weakening. Increasing winds
and building seas are expected over these waters.

In the far E Atlantic, off the coast of Morocco, N to NE winds are
expected to increase to near gale by Monday morning with gales
possible by Monday afternoon, as strong high pressure builds east
of the Azores.

$$
Hagen
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