[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151718
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
118 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

Winds to minimal gale force were occurring earlier this morning at
1200 UTC near the coast of Colombia. Winds will be below gale
force during the daytime hours. However, winds are expected to
pulse to minimal gale force for the next few nights near the coast
of Colombia. Sea heights are forecast to be 8-10 ft. Please read
the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 11N15W to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues from 06N19W to 02N30W to
the coast of Brazil near 01S46W. Scattered moderate convection is
seen within 300 nm of the coast of Brazil from 02S-03N, west of
41.5W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1025 mb high east of northern Florida extends surface ridging
over the NE Gulf of Mexico. Mid-level anticyclonic flow prevails
over the basin, leading to subsidence, especially over the
southern two-thirds of the Gulf. Some mid and high clouds are seen
over the NW and north-central Gulf. Patchy fog is near the coasts
of Mississippi, Louisiana and upper Texas.

High pressure ridging extending from the western Atlantic W to
across the Gulf will change little through Fri. Winds and seas
will increase some over the NW and N-central Gulf beginning Tue
night and lasting through Thu. Fresh to locally strong NE to E
winds will develop each evening near the northern Yucatan
Peninsula, then weaken overnight as the associated trough moves
offshore. Patchy fog is expected over portions of the NW Gulf,
especially during the overnight and early morning hours into Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mid- to upper-level ridging covers the central and western
Caribbean west of 70W, leading to mainly dry air and fair weather.
Isolated to scattered showers are seen near Trinidad, the southern
Windward Islands and far SE Caribbean. A 1014 mb surface low is
located near 22N61W, about 275 nm NNE of the northernmost Leeward
Islands. A trough from the low extends some clouds and isolated
showers over portions of the Leeward Islands. Drier air is
building in north of this trough over the northern Leeward and
Virgin Islands.

As of the low near 22N61W moves SW, it will continue to weaken. It
should be a weak trough or dissipated by the time it approaches
the Virgin or northern Leeward Islands early in the week.
Elsewhere, high pressure north of the area will support fresh to
strong NE to E winds over the south-central Caribbean for the next
several days. Strong winds, with frequent gusts to gale force, are
expected each night near the coast of Colombia. Strong winds will
pulse through the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola each
night through the middle of week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1014 mb surface low is located near 22N61W, about 275 nm NNE of
the northernmost Leeward Islands. A surface trough extends from
19N61W to the low to 27N60W to 30N56W. Isolated moderate
convection is within 360 nm eastern semicircle of the low. The
latest ASCAT pass shows that the low contains winds of 20-25 kt
near and E of the center. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are
across the waters N of Puerto Rico to about 22N, including the
Mona Passage. The low is expected to continue weakening as it
moves SW. It will be a weak trough or dissipated by early this
week as it approaches the Virgin or northern Leeward Islands. A
1025 mb high is east of Florida near 29N77W.

A weak cold front, currently north of 31N, will move southward
across the western Atlantic waters south of 30N this evening
through Mon night. Expect moderate to fresh winds and building
seas in the wake of the front. Strong high pressure will build
north of the area Wed night through Thu night, resulting in
increasing winds and seas across the western and central Atlantic.

In the far E Atlantic off the coast of Morocco, expect N to NE winds
to increase to near gale force on Monday, with these winds
continuing into some of Tuesday. Building seas are also expected
between southern Morocco and the easternmost of the Canary
Islands during that time.

$$
Hagen
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net