[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131026
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
626 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 07N12W to 04N10W. The ITCZ
continues from that point to 03N30W, then resumes east of the
surface trough near 02N37W to 00N48W. The surface trough extends
from 07N33W to 01S34W. Scattered showers are noted along and in
the vicinity of the ITCZ from 02N-05N between 14W-29W. Scattered
moderate convection is also noted south of the trough from 07S-
01N between 31W-43W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1019 mb surface high is centered near 27N83W. Scatterometer
indicates light and gentle anticyclonic wind flow over the
eastern Gulf becoming southeast across the NW Gulf. A surface
trough is noted from 22N89W to 16N91W. No significant showers
are seen near the trough. A mix of mid and high level clouds are
streaming across Texas into the western Gulf with a few showers
near the NW Gulf. Areas of fog have developed during the overnight
hours near the coastal waters over the northern and western Gulf
coast. Overall, the basin is dominated by the surface ridge with
fair weather. Current ASCAT data depicts moderate easterly winds
noted over the Straits of Florida.

Areas of dense fog will affect waters near the coast between
Pensacola, Florida and Lake Charles, Louisiana until noon today.
A weak ridge across the region will maintain gentle to moderate
E to SE winds over the basin through Mon night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Gentle to moderate tradewinds prevail across the basin, with
strongest winds along the coast of Colombia. Scattered showers
are over Dominican Republic and the Mona Passage associated to a
surface trough extending north of the island. Strong subsidence is
over the entire Caribbean.

The persistent ridge north of the area will support fresh NE
winds in the south-central Caribbean through Sat. Winds across the
central Caribbean will increase Sat night, then remain fresh to
occasionally strong through Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 28N73W to 20N72W supported by an
upper trough over the area. A second trough is noted from 23N60W
to 19N66W north of PR. Scattered moderate convection is E of the
trough from 19N-27N between 58W-65W. Scatterometer data depict an
area of fresh to strong winds from 21N-24N between 63W-67W, and
elsewhere moderate to fresh winds. A surface trough is seen from
32N37W to 26N39W with a few showers near the axis. Surface ridge
prevails elsewhere.

A ridge roughly from the central Atlantic to northern Florida
will weaken Sat night as a cold front sags southward over northern
waters Sun through Mon. High pressure building into the western
Atlantic in the wake of the front will build seas east of the
Bahamas Mon and Tue.

$$
Torres
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