[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131705
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 PM EDT Fri Mar 13 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1650 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N12W to 05N21W. The ITCZ extends from 05N21W to 03N36W, then
resumes W of a surface trough from 00N40W to the coast of Brazil
near 03S43W. A N-S surface trough is along 38W from 00N-04N.
Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm N and 180 nm S of
the monsoon trough and ITCZ between 13W-28W. Scattered moderate
convection is also seen from 06S-02N between 30W-45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 mb surface high is centered near the Florida Big Bend near
29N83W. Upper-level ridging covers the Gulf of Mexico. Mid and
high level clouds are streaming across Texas and the northwestern
Gulf of Mexico. Patchy fog is noted close to the coast of
southeast Louisiana. The latest ASCAT data shows fresh SE winds
covering the southwest Gulf of Mexico, decreasing to gentle near
the high in the NE Gulf. The weak ridge across the region will
maintain quiescent conditions across the Gulf through at least
Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level trough axis extends from Bermuda to the Mona
Passage and into the north-central Caribbean. Isolated showers are
possible from Puerto Rico to the eastern Dominican Republic. Most
of the basin is experiencing rather quiescent weather. The latest
ASCAT pass shows moderate trades across the basin. Winds across
the central Caribbean will increase Sat night, then remain fresh
to occasionally strong through Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 25N60W to 20N64W. This is located
just east of an upper level trough axis, that is along 66W from
Bermuda to the Mona Passage. Scattered moderate convection is seen
from 22N-29N between 57W-63W. The surface trough is expected to
sharpen and possibly become a surface low this weekend in the
vicinity of 25N60W, with strong E winds developing in the northern
semicircle of this system.

A surface ridge extending from the Bermuda High roughly along 30N
from the central Atlantic to N Florida will weaken Sat night as a
cold front sags southward over waters east of northern Florida Sun
through Mon. High pressure building into the W Atlantic in the
wake of the front will increase seas east of the Bahamas Mon and
Tue, as the low near 25N60W weakens and dissipates.

$$
Hagen
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