[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130607
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
207 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 13N16W to 05N20W. The ITCZ
continues from that point to 03N29W, then resumes east of the
surface trough near 02N37W to 00N49W. The surface trough extends
from 06N33W to 01S34W. Scattered showers are noted along and in
the vicinity of the surface trough and ITCZ mainly between 14W-
28W, and 30W-48W. Cluster of scattered showers is also noted
south of the trough from 07S-00N between 25W-41W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1019 mb surface high is centered near Apalachee Bay, Florida.
Scatterometer data shows light and gentle anticyclonic wind flow
over the eastern Gulf becoming southeast across the NW Gulf. A mix
of mid and high level clouds are streaming across Texas into the
western Gulf with a few showers reaching the surface. Overall, the
basin is dominated by the surface ridge with fair weather. Current
scatterometer data depicts moderate easterly winds noted over the
Straits of Florida.

The ridge will dominate the Gulf waters and generally maintain
gentle to moderate E to SE winds over the basin through Tue night.
Diurnally driven NE winds of 20 kt will occur during the evenings
hours within about 90 nm of the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula
beginning Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Gentle to moderate tradewinds prevail across the basin, with
strongest winds along the coast of Colombia. Scattered showers
are over Hispaniola and adjacent waters related to a surface
trough extending north of the island. Strong subsidence is over
the entire Caribbean.

The ridge N of the area will support fresh to locally strong
winds over the south-central Caribbean through Fri. Winds will
strengthen early next week as a stronger ridge builds E over
the western Atlc from the United States mainland.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 26N71W to 19N71W supported by an
upper trough over the area. Scattered moderate convection is E
of the trough from 20N-29N between 60W-70W. Scatterometer data
depict an area of fresh to strong winds from 21N-24N between 63W-
67W, and elsewhere moderate to fresh winds. Scattered moderate
convection. About 250 nm east of the convection, another trough
extends from 23N55W to 19N55W. A few showers are present in the
vicinity of the trough axis. A tail end of a weakening stationary
front enters the forecast area from 31N37W to 25N41W. Scattered
showers are gradually diminishing near the boundary. Surface
ridging prevails elsewhere.

A ridge from the central Atlantic dominates the region and will
shift E ahead of a cold front that will sag S over the northern
waters Fri night and Sat. High pres building E over the western
Atlantic in the wake of the front will cause winds and seas to
build E of the Bahamas Mon and Mon night.

$$
Torres
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