[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 122347
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
747 PM EDT Thu Mar 12 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N15W to 05N22W. The ITCZ
continues from that point to 04N28W. A surface trough extends from
06N30W to 02N31W. The ITCZ resumes near 01N36W to 01S44W.
Scattered showers are noted along and in the vicinity of the
surface trough and ITCZ mainly between 23W-40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1019 mb surface high is centered over the Florida Peninsula
near 29N82W. With this, surface ridging extends across the basin
with fair weather. Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle
anticyclonic winds prevailing across the basin, with moderate
easterly winds noted over the Straits of Florida.

The surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters and generally
maintain gentle to moderate E to SE winds over the basin through
the weekend. Diurnally driven NE winds of 20 kt will occur during
the evenings hours within about 90 nm of the coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula beginning on Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Gentle to moderate tradewinds prevail across the basin, with
strongest winds along the coast of Colombia. Scattered showers
are over Hispaniola and adjacent waters related to a surface
trough extending north of the island. Strong subsidence is over
the entire Caribbean.

A high pressure ridge N of the area will support fresh to locally
strong winds to pulse over the south-central Caribbean through
Fri. Winds will strengthen early next week as a stronger high
pressure ridge builds E over the western Atlantic.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 27N70W to 20N71W. Scattered
moderate convection is E of the trough from 20N-27N between 60W-
70W. This activity is enhanced by an upper level trough. Moderate
to fresh easterly winds are noted in scatterometer data mainly
north of 20N and west of 40W. To the east, a 1019 mb surface low
is centered near 27N40W, with stationary front extending from the
low to 31N37W. Surface ridging prevails elsewhere.

A surface ridge from the central Atlantic dominates the region
and will shift E ahead of a cold front that will sag S over the
northern waters Fri night and Sat. High pressure building E over
the western Atlantic in the wake of the front will cause winds and
seas to build E of the Bahamas on Mon.

$$
ERA
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