[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101042
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
642 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

A 1037 mb high pressure west of Bermuda is creating NE gale force
winds near the coast N of Colombia. Near gale to gale force winds
will continue in these areas through mid day Tuesday. Seas will
range from 10 to 15 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W to
01S29W to the coast of Brazil near 01S43W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is present along and south of the
monsoon trough from 01N-07N between 07W-22W, from 01S-01N between
22W-34W, and from 03S-02N west of 34W to the coast of Brazil.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1036 mb high over the west Atlantic near 32N66W extends ridging
over much of the Gulf. Upper-level ridge also currently prevails
over most of the Gulf of Mexico. An atmospheric river of mid-upper
level moisture extends from the east Pacific Ocean across Texas
to an upper-level low approaching the Great Lakes region. This
is enhancing scattered moderate showers and isolated tstorms
associated with this plume of moisture, especially from South
Central Texas to Louisiana. A surface trough extends from 22N90W
to 18N91W. No significant convection is observed with this trough.
Strong E winds are over portions of the eastern Gulf of Mexico and
Florida Straits. Moderate SE winds are over the W Gulf of Mexico.

A ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through early Fri. Fresh to
strong winds currently over the eastern Gulf will diminish early
today, with return flow dominating across the basin through Fri. A
cold front will briefly drop into the northern Gulf Fri before it
stalls and retreats northward into the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Strong pressure gradient continues as strong 1036 mb high pressure
prevails across the Caribbean Sea. Gale warning remains in effect
for the Caribbean, please see special features above for more
details. Latest ASCAT data indicates south of Hispaniola fresh to
strong winds from 15N-17N between 68W-73W, and moderate to fresh
over the NW Caribbean. A shear line north of Puerto Rico and the
USVI is enhancing an area of scattered showers and tstorms from
Hispaniola to Puerto Rico and the USVI. Comparatively drier air
in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea.

Strong winds will prevail across the south-central Caribbean
through the middle of the week. Winds will diminish slightly as a
weaker pressure pattern prevails through Fri. Winds will start to
strengthen again in the south- central Caribbean Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1036 mb high centered near 32N66W extends ridging over the W
Atlantic. A central Atlantic cold front extends from 31N39W to
22N49W to 20N58W, then a shearline extends from 20N58W to 18N68W.
Isolated showers and tstorms are along the front and shearline.
Near gale force winds are to the north of the front from 20N-27N
and west of 45W. An upper-level trough is from 24N74W to E Cuba.
Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are seen east of the upper-
trough axis, from 18N-27N between 66W-75W. In the NE Atlantic, an
upper-level low near 24N23W is producing showers near the Canary
Islands.

Strong winds and high seas in large N swell will prevail before
conditions start to improve toward the middle of the week. High
pressure will prevail through Fri before retreating eastward. A
cold front may drop SE into the NW waters Fri night into Sat
before it weakens and dissipates through Sat night.
Strong winds and high seas in large N swell will
prevail before conditions start to improve toward the middle of
the week. High pressure will prevail through Fri before retreating
eastward. A cold front may drop SE into the NW waters Fri night
into Sat before it weakens and dissipates through Sat night.
$$

MMTorres
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