[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100602
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
201 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

A 1037 mb high west of Bermuda is creating gale force winds near
the coast of N Colombia and near the approach to the Windward
Passage. Near gale to gale force winds will continue in these
areas through Tuesday morning. The Mona Passage and area south of
the Dominican Republic will see near gales during this time. Seas
will range from 10 to 13 ft. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W to
00N29W to the coast of Brazil near 03S39W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is present from 01N-07N between 10W-
21W, from 02S-03N between 21W-38W, and near the coast of Brazil
near 02S-02N west of 39W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1037 mb high over the west Atlantic near 33N64W extends ridging
over much of the Gulf. Upper-level ridging also currently prevails
over most of the Gulf of Mexico. An atmospheric river of mid-upper
level moisture extends from the east Pacific Ocean across Texas
to an upper-level low approaching the Great Lakes region. Scattered
moderate showers and isolated tstorms associated with this plume
of moisture prevail over the northern Gulf from 26N-29N between
90W-97W. Strong E winds are over portions of the eastern Gulf of
Mexico and Florida Straits. Moderate SE winds are over the W Gulf
of Mexico.

A ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through early Fri. Fresh to
strong winds currently over the eastern Gulf will diminish tonight
into early Tue, with return flow dominating across the basin under
the ridging through Fri. A cold front will drop into the northern
Gulf Fri, stalling out and then retreating northward into the
weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An Atlantic stationary front extends from 20N57W through PR to
17N69W. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms extend across the
Windward Passage and western Puerto Rico, covering portions of
the northern Caribbean. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is
apparent in water vapor imagery over the southwestern Caribbean
Sea. Strong winds cover much of the basin, with near gale to gale
force winds in the Windward Passage, near the coast of Colombia,
and south of the Dominican Republic.

The stationary front will move back NW as a warm front Tue.
Strong to near gale force winds, except minimal gale force near
the approach to the Windward Passage, and large seas will linger
through late tonight before conditions start to improve. Strong
winds will prevail across the S-central Caribbean through the
forecast period, pulsing to minimal gale force tonight into early
Tue. A weaker pressure pattern will prevail for the remainder of
the week, strengthening again in the S-central Caribbean Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1037 mb high centered near 33N65W extends ridging over the W
Atlantic. A central Atlantic cold front extends from 31N40W to
22N49W to 20N57W, then stalls to near the USVI to 18N65W.
Isolated showers are near the front. Near gale force winds are
within 180 nm NW of the front, from 20N-27N and west of 45W.
Altimeter passes from earlier today showed seas of 12-15 ft from
20N-28N between 58W-63W. An upper-level trough is from 24N74W to
E Cuba. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are seen east of
the upper-trough axis, from 18N-27N between 66W-75W. In the NE
Atlantic, an upper-level low near 24N23W is producing showers
near the Canary Islands.

A stationary front will move back NW as a warm front Tue. Strong
winds and high seas in large NW to N swell behind the front across
the basin will prevail through Tue before conditions start to
improve toward the middle of the week. Weak high pressure and
moderate to fresh tradewinds will prevail Thu, with gentle to
moderate winds Fri as the ridge retreats. A cold front may drop SE
into the NW waters Fri night into Sat, weakening and dissipating
through Sat night.

$$
MMTorres
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