[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101727
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
127 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1650 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Sierra
Leone near 06N11W to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W to
01S29W to the coast of Brazil near 02S40W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is present along and south of the
monsoon trough from 01N-07N between 06W-22W, from 01S-01N between
22W-34W, and from 03S-02N west of 32W to the coast of Brazil.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1036 mb high over the west Atlantic near 33N61W provides
extended ridging over much of the Gulf of Mexico. An upper-level
ridge also prevails over most of the Gulf. An atmospheric river
of mid- to upper- level moisture extends from the east Pacific
Ocean across South Texas to an upper-level low approaching the
Great Lakes region. This is enhancing scattered moderate showers
and isolated tstorms associated with this plume of moisture,
especially from the Southern portions of Texas and into
Louisiana. A surface trough extends from 22N93W to 15N92W. No
significant convection is observed with this trough. Strong E
winds are over portions of the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida
Straits. Moderate SE winds are over the W Gulf of Mexico.

The ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through early Friday.
Fresh to strong winds, currently in the eastern Gulf of Mexico,
will diminish early today. Return flow will dominate across the
basin through Friday. A cold front will drop into the northern
Gulf of Mexico, on Friday, briefly, before it stalls and retreats
northward into the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A strong pressure gradient continues as 1036 mb high pressure
prevails across the Caribbean Sea. The high pressure is creating
near gale force winds near the coast N of Columbia. Fresh to
strong winds are from 15N-17N between 68W-73W, and moderate to
fresh over the NW Caribbean. A shear line north of Puerto Rico and
the USVI is enhancing an area of scattered showers and tstorms
from Hispaniola to Puerto Rico and the USVI from 20N-28N between
62W-70W. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in
water vapor imagery over the southwestern Caribbean Sea.

Strong winds will prevail across the south central Caribbean Sea
through the middle of the week. The wind speeds will diminish
slightly as a weaker pressure pattern prevails through Friday. The
wind speeds will start to strengthen again in the south central
Caribbean Sea on Saturday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1036 mb high centered near 33N61W extends ridging over the W
Atlantic. A central Atlantic cold front extends from 30N38W to
21N55W, then a shearline extends from 20N55W to 19N61W. Isolated
showers and tstorms are along the front and shearline. Near gale
force winds are to the N of the front from 20N-30N and W of 45W.
An upper-level trough is from 24N74W to E Cuba. Scattered showers
and isolated tstorms are seen east of the upper- trough axis, from
18N-27N between 66W-75W. In the NE Atlantic, an upper- level low
near 24N23W is producing showers near the Canary Islands.

Strong winds and high seas in large N swell will prevail, before
the conditions start to improve toward the middle of the week.
High pressure will prevail through Friday, before retreating
eastward. It is possible that a cold front may drop SE into the NW
waters, from Friday night into Saturday, before it weakens and
dissipates through Saturday night.

$$
ZACHRY
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