[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091039
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
639 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

Gale is ongoing for the waters off the coast of Colombia from
10N-11N between 74W-76W. Winds will pulse below gale force for
Monday afternoon, then increase to gale force again for Monday
night, then pulse below gale force late Tuesday morning. The sea
heights are forecast to range from 8-12 ft. Please read the
latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 07N12W to
05N16W. The ITCZ continues from 05N16W to 00N30W to Brazil
near 02S43W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection from
00N-08N between the coast of Sierra Leone to 30W, from 00N-02N
between 30W-48W near the coast of Brazil.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1036 mb high centered in the western Atlantic near 33N72W extends
surface ridging over the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong E winds
are over the eastern and central Gulf, with winds to near gale
force in the Florida Straits and SE Gulf. Seas in excess of 8 ft
are over the Florida Straits, Yucatan Channel and portions of the
SE Gulf. Moderate E to SE winds are over the western Gulf of
Mexico. Little to no significant shower activity is occurring over
the Gulf of Mexico.

High pressure will prevail across the Gulf waters through the
week. Fresh to strong winds currently over the eastern Gulf will
diminish late today. Return flow will then dominate the NW and N
Gulf Tue through Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends across Puerto Rico into the Caribbean Sea
south of Hispaniola, then begins to weaken to near 17N76W.
Scattered showers are near the front. Strong pressure gradient
across the Caribbean is keeping strong to near gale force NE winds
across the Windward Passage, the Mona Passage and south into Jamaica.
ASCAT data shows strong to near gale winds over the NW Caribbean
and across the Windward Passage, south of Cuba and Jamaica and
to the north of Colombia.

A weakening cold front will drift slightly southeastward and
gradually dissipate today. Strong winds and large seas that built
behind the front will linger through late tonight before conditions
start to improve. Strong winds will prevail across the south-central
Caribbean through the forecast period, pulsing to minimal gale
force tonight. Large N swell over the Atlantic will reach areas
from the Mona Passage to the northern Leeward Islands tonight. The
large swell will then continue to affect the NE Caribbean
passages through mid-week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1036 mb high in the western Atlantic extends surface ridging
across the western Atlantic. An Atlantic cold front extends from
31N47W to 20N59W to Puerto Rico near 18N65W. Isolated showers are
near the front. N to NE winds of 25-30 kt cover nearly the entire
western Atlantic behind the front. Seas of 12-17 ft cover the
area from 23N-32N between 64W and the Bahamas, in large northerly
swell. An upper-level trough extends cloudiness and isolated
showers off the east coast of Florida through the central Bahamas.
In the eastern Atlantic, upper-level low near 24N25W is producing
scattered showers from 22N-29N between 19W-26W. A surface ridge
extends from the Azores to near 27N46W, with fair weather in
between those points.

The cold front will stall and weaken over eastern Puerto Rico and
the SE waters today. Strong winds and high seas in large NW to N
swell behind the front will prevail through Tue before conditions
start to improve toward the middle of the week. Weak high pressure
and moderate to fresh tradewinds will prevail Thu through Fri.
Large N swell will reach areas from the Mona Passage to the
northern Leeward Islands tonight, then continue through mid-week.
Weak high pressure and moderate to fresh tradewinds will prevail
Thu through Fri. Weak high pressure and moderate to fresh
tradewinds will prevail Thu through Fri.

$$
MMTorres
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