[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091712
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
112 PM EDT Mon Mar 9 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1650 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA... .

The current forecast, at 09/1200 UTC, consists of NE-to-E gale-
force winds, and sea heights ranging from 9 feet to 11 feet, from
11N to 13N between 74W and 77W. These conditions are forecast to
continue for the next 24 hours or so. Please read the latest HIGH
SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE
FORECAST: MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, from the NWS
National Hurricane Center, for more details.

...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is along 31N45W 22N56W 18N64W. Expect N gale-force
winds, and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 14 feet, within
150 nm NW of the cold front E of 55W. These conditions are forecast
to continue for the next 24 hours or so. Please read the latest
HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE
FORECAST: MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, from the NWS
National Hurricane Center, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W, to 06N16W. The ITCZ continues from 06N16W, to
04N22W, 02N25W, crossing the Equator along 33W, to 02S37W.
Precipitation: Widely scattered to scattered moderate and
isolated strong is to the south of the line that runs from 11N15W
to 05N30W 04N40W 03N50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level ridge extends from SW Mexico near 18N101W beyond
the U.S.A. Gulf Coast areas of SE Louisiana/southern Mississippi/
SW Alabama.

A surface ridge extends from the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico,
into the central Gulf of Mexico, to the coast of Mexico near
21N97W.

A surface ridge will dominate the Gulf of Mexico through the
week. Fresh to strong winds, currently in the eastern Gulf of
Mexico, will diminish late from today into tonight. Return flow
will set up across the NW and N Gulf of Mexico from Tuesday
through Friday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough passes through SE Cuba, southwestward,
beyond Nicaragua and NW Costa Rica. Comparatively drier air in
subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery from 70W westward.

A cold front passes through 20N60W in the Atlantic Ocean, across
the Virgin Islands, to 17N69W in the Caribbean Sea. The front
becomes dissipating cold from 17N69W to 17N76W. Broken to overcast
multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are within 300 nm to
the NW and N of the line that passes through 18N64W 15N70W 15N80W.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended
at 09/1200 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are: 0.26 in St.
Thomas in the Virgin Islands, 0.07 in San Juan in Puerto Rico and
in Kingston in Jamaica Bermuda, and 0.02 in Montego Bay in Jamaica.

The current frontal boundary will drift slightly southeastward
and dissipate gradually today. Strong winds and large seas that
built behind the front will linger through late tonight, before
the conditions start to improve. Strong winds will prevail
across the south central Caribbean Sea through the forecast
period, pulsing to minimal gale force from tonight into Tuesday
morning.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A central Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N44W, to
26N50W 20N60W 20N59W, across the Virgin Islands, to 17N69W in the
Caribbean Sea. The front becomes dissipating cold from 17N69W to
17N76W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and
possible rainshowers are within 300 nm to the NW of the line that
passes through 32N42W 24N50W 19N60W 18N64W. Expect N gale- force
winds, and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 14 feet, within 150
nm NW of the cold front E of 55W. These conditions are forecast
to continue for the next 24 hours or so. 24-hour rainfall totals
that are listed for the period that ended at 09/1200 UTC,
according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are: 0.02 in Bermuda.

The current cold front will stall and dissipate gradually, from
tonight into Tuesday. Strong winds and high seas, in large NW to
N swell behind the front, will prevail through Tuesday. The
conditions will start to improve toward the middle of the week.
Weak high pressure and moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail
from Thursday through Friday.

$$
MT
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