[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090554
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
154 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

A cold front extends from the Dominican Republic near 18N68W to
south of Jamaica near 16N76W. Near gale to gale force NE winds
are ongoing tonight south of Hispaniola to the Windward Passage
southward to eastern Jamaica. The gales will end by early Monday
morning. Elsewhere in the northern Caribbean behind the cold
front, strong to near gale force winds are expected through
tonight. Seas of 9-12 ft are expected in the area. Please read the
latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

Gale is ongoing for the waters off the coast of Colombia from
10N-13N between 74W-77W. Winds will pulse below gale force for
Monday afternoon, then increase to gale force again for Monday
night, then pulse below gale force late Tuesday morning. The sea
heights are forecast to range from 9-12 ft. Please read the latest
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 09N13W to
04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 00N31W to Brazil near
02S42W. Scattered moderate convection from 00N-08N between the
coast of Sierra Leone to 26W, from 00N-05N between 26W-36W and
near the coast of Brazil from 02S-00N and west of 39W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1037 mb high centered over North Carolina near 33N77W extends
surface ridging over the Gulf of Mexico. Strong E winds are over
the eastern Gulf, with winds to near gale force in the Florida
Straits and SE Gulf. Seas in excess of 8 ft are over the Florida
Straits, Yucatan Channel and portions of the SE Gulf. Moderate to
fresh E to SE winds are over the western Gulf of Mexico. Little to
no significant shower activity is occurring over the Gulf of Mexico
tonight.

Strong high pressure over the eastern U.S. will shift slowly eastward
into the Atlantic through the forecast period and dominate conditions
across the Gulf waters. Fresh to strong winds currently over the
eastern Gulf will diminish late Mon. Return flow will then dominate
the NW and N Gulf Tue through Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from the Dominican Republic near 18N68W to
south of Jamaica near 16N76W. Scattered showers are near the
front. Strong pressure gradient across the Caribbean is keeping
strong to near gale force NE winds with Gale Warnings in effect.
Please see special features above for more details. ASCAT data
shows strong to near gale winds over the NW Caribbean and across
the Windward Passage, south of Cuba and north of Colombia.

The weakening cold front will drift slightly southeastward across
Puerto Rico and gradually dissipate through Mon. Strong winds and
large seas will prevail behind the front across the Caribbean,
with brief gales in the lee of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and off
the south coast of Hispaniola tonight. Strong winds will prevail
across the south-central Caribbean through the forecast period,
pulsing to minimal gale force tonight and again Mon night. Large
N swell over the Atlantic will reach areas from the Mona Passage
to the northern Leeward Islands tonight. The large swell will then
continue to affect the NE Caribbean passages through mid-week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1037 mb high centered near North Carolina extends surface
ridging across the western Atlantic. An Atlantic cold front
extends from 31N49W to 23N58W to the Dominican Republic near
18N67W. Isolated showers are near the front. N to NE winds of
25-30 kt cover nearly the entire western Atlantic behind the front.
Seas of 12-17 ft cover the area from 23N-32N between 60W and the
Bahamas, in large northerly swell. An upper-level trough extends
cloudiness and isolated showers off the east coast of Florida
through the central Bahamas. In the eastern Atlantic, an upper-
level low near 24N25W is producing scattered showers from 22N-29N
between 19W-26W. A surface ridge extends from the Azores to near
27N46W, with fair weather in between those points.

The cold front will stall and weaken over eastern Puerto Rico and
the SE waters Mon. Strong winds and high seas in large NW to N
swell behind the front will prevail through Tue before conditions
start to improve toward the middle of the week. Large N swell
will reach areas from the Mona Passage to the northern Leeward
Islands tonight, then continue through mid-week. Weak high
pressure and moderate to fresh tradewinds will prevail Thu through
Fri. Weak high pressure and moderate to fresh tradewinds will
prevail Thu through Fri.

$$
MMTorres
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