[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082223
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
623 PM EDT Sun Mar 8 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2210 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

A cold front extends from the Dominican Republic near 19N69W to
Jamaica near 18N76W, dissipating to 16N81W. Near gale to gale
force NE winds are expected this evening beginning at 09/0000 UTC
south of Cuba, from the Windward Passage southward to south of
eastern Jamaica, and to the south of the Dominican Republic
extending toward the Mona Passage. The gales will end by early
Monday morning around 09/0900 UTC. Elsewhere in the northern
Caribbean behind the cold front, strong to near gale force winds
are expected through tonight. Seas of 9-12 ft are expected in the
area. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for further details.

...SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

A gale is forecast for the waters off the coast of Colombia from
10N-13N between 74W-77W to begin this evening at 09/0000 UTC.
Winds will pulse below gale force for Monday afternoon, then
increase to gale force again for Monday night, then pulse below
gale force late Tuesday morning. The sea heights are forecast to
range from 9-12 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the border of Guinea and Sierra
Leone near 09N13W to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to
01N26W to Brazil near 03S44W. Scattered moderate convection is
inside the area enclosed by the points 04N05W to 00N19W to 00N35W
to 05N33W to 09N08W to 04N05W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1037 mb high centered over South Carolina near 34N79W extends
surface ridging over the Gulf of Mexico. Strong E winds are over
the eastern Gulf, with winds to near gale force in the Florida
Straits and SE Gulf. Seas in excess of 8 ft are over the Florida
Straits, Yucatan Channel and portions of the SE Gulf. Moderate to
fresh E to SE winds are over the western Gulf of Mexico. Little
to no significant shower activity is occurring over the Gulf of
Mexico today.

Strong high pressure over the eastern U.S. will shift slowly
eastward into the Atlantic through the forecast period and
dominate conditions across the Gulf waters. Fresh to strong winds
currently over the eastern Gulf will diminish late Mon. Return
flow will then dominate the NW and N Gulf Tue through Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from the Dominican Republic near 19N69W to
Jamaica near 18N76W, dissipating to 16N81W. Scattered showers are
near the front. Strong to near gale force NE winds cover the
northwest and north-central Caribbean to the north of the front.
The strongest winds are occurring south of Cuba, and from the
Windward Passage to just SE of Jamaica. Near gale force winds are
also seen off the coast of N Colombia. Winds in the aforementioned
areas are expected to increase to gale force very soon, by 09/0000
UTC.

The weakening cold front extending from southern Hispaniola
across Jamaica to 16N81W will drift slightly southward and
gradually dissipate through Mon. Strong winds and large seas will
prevail behind the front across the Caribbean, with brief gales in
the lee of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and off the south coast of
Hispaniola tonight. Strong winds will prevail across the south-
central Caribbean through the forecast period, pulsing to minimal
gale force tonight and again Mon night. Large N swell over the
Atlantic will reach areas from the Mona Passage to the northern
Leeward Islands tonight. The large swell will then continue to
affect the NE Caribbean passages through mid-week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1037 mb high centered near Myrtle Beach South Carolina extends
surface ridging across the western Atlantic. An Atlantic cold
front extends from 32N51W to 24N60W to the Dominican Republic
near 19N69W. Isolated showers are near the front. N to NE winds of
25-30 kt cover nearly the entire western Atlantic behind the front
inside the area enclosed by the points 32N51W to the Mona Passage
to southern Belize to Tampa Bay to 32N72W to 32N51W. Seas of 12-17
ft cover the area from 23N-32N between 60W and the Bahamas, in
large northerly swell. An upper-level trough extends cloudiness
and isolated showers off the east coast of Florida through the
central Bahamas. In the eastern Atlantic, an upper-level low near
24N25W is producing scattered showers from 22N-29N between 19W-
26W. A surface ridge extends from the Azores to near 27N46W, with
fair weather in between those points.

The cold front extending from 20N65W to the eastern Dominican
Republic to Jamaica will stall and weaken over eastern Puerto
Rico Mon. Strong winds and large seas behind the front will
prevail through Tue before conditions start to improve toward the
middle of the week. Large N swell will reach areas from the Mona
Passage to the northern Leeward Islands tonight, then continue
through mid-week. Weak high pressure and moderate to fresh
tradewinds will prevail Thu through Fri.

$$
Hagen
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