[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081743
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
143 PM EDT Sun Mar 8 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

A gale is forecast for the Windward Passage, the south of
Jamaica, and the lee of Cuba N of 19N between 77W-80W, on 09/0000
UTC. The gale is to last until 09/1200 UTC.

Frequent gusts to gale is forecast for an area N of 16.5N between
67W-72W including the Mona Passage, on 09/0000 UTC. The gale is to
last until 09/1200 UTC.

A gale is forecast for the waters off the coast of Colombia from
10N-13N between 74W-77W, on 09/0000 UTC. The sea heights are
forecast to range from 9-11 ft. The gale is expected to last
beyond 10/1200 UTC.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC,
the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST: MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, from the
NWS National Hurricane Center, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Guinea near 10N14W to 05N19W. The
ITCZ continues from 05N19W to 00N30W to Brazil near 02S44W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 00N-08N between 08W-19W.
Widely scattered moderate convection is from 05N-05S between
21W-38W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1037 mb high is centered over North Carolina near 35N80W. 10-20
kt E to SE return flow is over the Gulf of Mexico. Radar imagery
shows no precipitation over the Gulf of Mexico. In the upper
levels, a ridge is over the W Gulf, while a sharp trough is over
the E Gulf and Florida. Broken high clouds are over the E Gulf.

High pressure over the eastern U.S. will shift slowly eastward
into the Atlantic through the forecast period and dominate
conditions across the Gulf waters. Fresh to strong winds currently
over the eastern Gulf will diminish late Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from 20N68W to SW Haiti near 18N74W. A
dissipating cold front continues to 17N80W to E Honduras near
16N84W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the front. More
scattered showers are inland over N Nicaragua, Honduras,
Guatemala, and Belize. Similar showers are over Puerto Rico and
the Virgin Islands.

The front will gradually dissipate today. Strong winds and large
seas will prevail behind the front across the Caribbean, with
brief gales in the lee of Cuba, the Windward Passage, south of
Jamaica, and off the south coast of Hispaniola tonight. Strong
winds will prevail across the south-central Caribbean through the
forecast period, pulsing to minimal gale force tonight and Mon
night. Another gale is forecast off the coast of N Colombia.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N54W to 24N60W to
20N68W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the front. A 1032
mb high is over the E Atlantic near 36N21W. A ridge axis extends
from this high to 24N50W. Of note in the upper levels, an upper
level low is centered over the E Atlantic near 25N23W. Scattered
showers are W of the Canary Islands.

The current cold front over the W Atlantic will move SE today. It
will stall and weaken over eastern Puerto Rico tonight through
Monday. Strong winds and large seas behind the front will prevail
through Tuesday. Conditions will start to improve during the
middle of the next week.

$$
Formosa
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