[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080458
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1158 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0440 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

The 24-hour forecast, starting at 08/0000 UTC, from 17N to 20N
between 74W and 77W, including in the Windward Passage, consists
of NE gale-force winds. The sea heights will range from 10 feet
to 13 feet. Expect, also, NE gale-force winds and sea heights
reaching 8 feet, from 17N to 18N between 70W and 72W, in the
southern coastal waters of the Dominican Republic.

A second area of gale-force winds is forecast to develop in the
waters that are off the coast of Colombia, in 24 hours, from 10N
to 12N between 74W and 77W. The sea heights are forecast to range
from 8 feet to 9 feet.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST: MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go
to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml,
from the NWS National Hurricane Center, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea
near 10N14W, to 04N20W, and 03N24W. The ITCZ continues from
03N24W, to the Equator along 35W, to the coast of Brazil near
03S43W. Precipitation: Isolated moderate to locally strong is
from 07N southward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge passes through the Louisiana, into the western
part of the Gulf of Mexico, continuing to the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.

High pressure in the eastern U.S.A. will shift eastward, slowly,
into the Atlantic Ocean, through the forecast period, and
dominate the conditions across the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to
strong winds, currently in the eastern waters, will diminish late
on Monday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The 24-hour forecast, starting at 08/0000 UTC, from 17N to 20N
between 74W and 77W, including in the Windward Passage, consists
of NE gale-force winds. The sea heights will range from 10 feet
to 13 feet. Expect, also, NE gale-force winds and sea heights
reaching 8 feet, from 17N to 18N between 70W and 72W, in the
southern coastal waters of the Dominican Republic. Please read
the SPECIAL FEATURES section.

A second area of gale-force winds is forecast to develop in the
waters that are off the coast of Colombia, in 24 hours, from 10N
to 12N between 74W and 77W. The sea heights are forecast to range
from 8 feet to 9 feet. Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section.

A cold front is passing through the Turks Islands in the SE
Bahamas, through the Windward Passage, to 19N80W in the NW corner
of the Caribbean Sea, 18N86W, curving to central Honduras.
Broken to overcast low level and middle level clouds and possible
rainshowers are to the northwest of the line that runs from
17N70W to the coast of Panama along 80W.

Rainshowers are possible, elsewhere, in clusters of broken low
level clouds, in trade wind flow, across the area.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that
ended at 08/0000 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are: 0.15 in
Guadeloupe.

The current cold front will move SE tonight and on Sunday, before
stalling from eastern Puerto Rico into the central Caribbean Sea
on Monday. Strong winds and large seas will develop behind the
front across the Caribbean Sea. Expect brief gale-force winds in
the lee of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and off the south coast of
Hispaniola on Sunday night. Strong winds will prevail, elsewhere,
in the south central Caribbean Sea through the forecast period,
pulsing to minimal gale-force on Sunday night and on Monday
night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is about 375 nm to the east of Bermuda, passing
through 32N57W, to 26N64W, passing by the Turks Islands in the SE
Bahamas, through the Windward Passage, to 19N80W in the NW corner
of the Caribbean Sea. A post-frontal surface trough is about 125
nm to the west of the cold front from 28N northward. Precipitation:
isolated to widely scattered moderate between the cold front and
the post-frontal surface trough from 30N northward. Broken to
overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are
elsewhere within 225 nm to the northwest of the line that runs
through 32N53W, to 27N60W and 20N70W. 24-hour rainfall totals that
are listed for the period that ended at 08/0000 UTC, according to
the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES,
MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are: 0.39 in Bermuda.

A surface trough is along 26N50W to 20N53W. Precipitation:
rainshowers are possible within 255 nm on either side of the
trough.

The current strong cold front will move SE this weekend. It will
stall and weaken in eastern Puerto Rico and the SE waters, from
Sunday night through Monday. Strong winds and large seas,
developing behind the front, will prevail through Tuesday.
The conditions will start to improve during the middle of the
next week.

$$
MT
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