[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 072350
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
650 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

West Atlantic Gale Warning: A 969 mb hurricane force low near
40N62W extends gales as far south as 30N between 71W-76W,
according to the ASCAT pass from late Saturday morning. The gales
south of 31N are expected to end by 08/0000 UTC. Seas of 13-16 ft
were observed in this area in recent altimeter passes.

Northern Caribbean Gale Warning: A cold front extends over E Cuba
from 21N75W to just S of the Cayman Islands near 19N81W. The
front continues as stationary to 18N86W to central Honduras near
15N87W. As the front moves E over the Caribbean, brief gales will
develop behind the front Sunday evening south of the Windward
Passage and off the south coast of Hispaniola. Seas up to 9 to 13
ft are forecast for the area.

South-central Caribbean Gale Warning: Strong high pressure moving
off the Carolina coast late Sunday will create a strong pressure
gradient across the Caribbean. Gales are expected off the N coast
of Colombia Sunday night into early Monday morning, and again
potentially on Monday night. Seas are forecast to build to 9-12 ft
with these winds.

Please refer to the Atlantic High Seas Forecast under the
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on
the special features mentioned above.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 10N14W to
05N19W to 02N27W. The ITCZ continues from 02N27W to 00N35W to the
coast of Brazil near 03S43W. Scattered moderate convection is from
01.5S-03N between 23W-31W, and from 03S-02N between 39W-47W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1036 mb high centered over Kentucky extends a surface ridge to
east Texas and the northwest Gulf. However, abundant cloud cover
is over much of the basin, with scattered light to moderate
showers noted over portions of the western and central Gulf. The
ASCAT pass from late Saturday morning showed strong NE winds
across most of the eastern half of the Gulf, with moderate E winds
over the western Gulf.

High pressure over the eastern U.S. will shift slowly eastward
into the Atlantic through the forecast period and dominate
conditions across the Gulf. Fresh to strong winds currently over
the eastern waters will diminish late Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for more details about
the Gale Warnings in effect for the basin.

A cold front extends over E Cuba from 21N75W to just S of the
Cayman Islands near 19N81W. The front continues as stationary to
18N86W to central Honduras near 15N87W. Scattered showers are near
the front. Strong N to NE winds cover the northwest Caribbean to
the north of the front, west of 78W. Moderate to locally fresh
trades are over much of the eastern and central Caribbean, except
for strong NE winds near the coast of Colombia. Some clouds and
isolated showers are seen over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico
as well as Hispaniola.

The cold front from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras will move
SE this weekend before stalling from eastern Puerto Rico into the
central Caribbean Mon. Strong winds and large seas will develop
behind the front across the Caribbean, with brief gales south of
the Windward Passage and off the south coast of Hispaniola Sun
night. Otherwise, strong winds will prevail across the south-
central Caribbean through the forecast period, pulsing to minimal
gale force Sun night and Mon night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 32N59W to 25N68W to eastern Cuba near
21N75W to 19N81W. The ASCAT pass from late Saturday morning showed
30 to 35 kt NW to N winds north of 30N between 70W-75W. Fresh to
near gale winds were elsewhere behind the front, between the front
and the east coast of Florida. Fresh to strong S to SW winds were
ahead of the front, north of 27N and west of 53W. Altimeter passes
from Saturday at 1506 UTC and 1923 UTC both indicated seas of
12-16 ft from 27N-31N between 70W-75W. Scattered showers are
within 90 nm of the cold front. The cold front will move SE this
weekend before stalling and weakening over eastern Puerto Rico and
the waters N of Puerto Rico Sun night through Mon. Strong winds
and large seas of 12-15 ft occurring behind the front will
prevail over most of the western and central Atlantic through Tue
before conditions start to improve the middle of next week.

Farther E, A 1024 mb high is currently near 32N41W. Deep layered
ridging extends from this area southwestward to near the northern
Leeward Islands. An upper-level low in the vicinity of 23N-30N and
23W-32W is inducing cloudiness and showers in the area from 20N-
32N between the west coast of Africa and 30W. Strong NE winds are
over portions of the area offshore Morocco and Western Sahara, as
well as near the Canary Islands.

$$
Hagen
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